Third wave of COVID19: Preventable or inevitable in India? - By Dr Edward Nazareth




 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Dr Edward Nazareth

May 27: From mid-September of 2020, the daily average positive cases of COVID19 infection from the first wave started declining in India; policy makers, bureaucrats and people believed that India had won over COVID19 infection and we would not get any more waves of COVID 19 infection. Though a few experts warned about the second wave, it fell on deaf ears.

My article, ‘Second wave of COVID19: Are we prepared?’ was also published on this website on November 20, 2020. It was based on the opinion of experts in the field.

We failed miserably to prepare for the second wave and had to face the situation which is almost gone out of control. Now the government officials and health authorities are warning of the possibility of a third wave, even though its timing could not be predicted. Few of the administrations and some hospitals have already begun preparing their infrastructure in anticipation of a fresh increase in COVID19 cases after a few months.

The second wave seems to be weakening at the national level now. After having peaked on May 6, the number of cases at all India level have entered a declining phase. In the last two weeks, the daily case counts are dropping after touching a high of 37.45 lakh positive cases. If this trend continues, it is expected that by July 2021, India would again reach the lowest level of cases as it was in February this year. Then we will have a lull. If the pattern of Europe and other countries to happen in India, by this December we will be having the third wave in our country.

Devastating third wave

Normally in virus infections every fresh wave would be weaker than the previous one. It is because during its subsequent runs, there would be less number of susceptible people as most of them would have gained immunity from previous infections. This is somehow not applicable to COVID19 infection. The subsequent waves were stronger, more fatal. This is proven in the countries which have already faced the third wave.

The West has been through three waves already. In April last year, the United States had more than 32,000 cases, then the curve flattened but in July new infections climbed up again. At its peak, the US was reporting more than 70,000 cases in July 2020 which was almost double the number of cases compared to the first wave. The second wave in the US lasted for nearly 45 days. Then it experienced a deadlier third wave which started in the first week of October 2020 and peaked in the first week of January 2021. By January this year, the US had almost 300,000 cases a day as new infections increased by nine times, the same was with fatalities. During the first wave in April 2020, the US reported more than 2,000 deaths and by January 2021, that's around the peak of the third wave, America was reporting around 4,000 deaths in a day. The deaths doubled by the third wave. The pandemic is on the retreat in America, thanks to an aggressive vaccination campaign and by the end of last month, new cases in the US had declined by as much as 26 per cent.

In April last year, Europe was reporting around 35,000 new cases a day. It was the first wave and by November 2020, Europe was gripped by the second wave as new infections went beyond 300,000. It was the highest number of daily infections that Europe reported during the pandemic. In April last year, Europe reported about 3,000 deaths per day and by the end of November, they crossed 6,000. In January 2021, Europe reported around 7,000 deaths per day. Now, Europe too is coming out of the grip of the virus with restrictions lifted in many countries. New cases in the European Union countries have dropped by almost 30 per cent. Both America and Europe could control the virus by targeted lockdowns and aggressive vaccination.

Optimism: scientific?

Even when the second wave was hitting US and Europe we in India believed that our country would not be affected by second wave. We failed to ask why India would be spared. Now we are badly crushed by the second wave.

When there are warnings of the third wave, some of our experts are optimistic that the third wave will be weaker in our country. Their speculation for a low impact from the third wave is because a far greater number of people have been infected during the second wave than the first. With the positivity rate almost four times that of the first wave, the unconfirmed infections — those who were never tested — is also expected to be large. In addition, vaccination would also induce immunity in a large proportion of the population. So, there would be a significantly lower number of susceptible people in the population after the second wave.

This optimism may be consoling, but will it be real? Except for vaccination, many people were also infected in US and Europe in the first and second wave. Even then they were hit by the third wave why we will not?

We are still not sure why the COVID 19 virus is attacking in wave forms. Is the mutated strains are the cause? It is now known that in Europe as well as in India, the mutated strains are main cause for the havoc. Can anyone guarantee that the virus will not mutate again?

In US and Europe vaccination is also given the credit for flattening of the third wave, which again is not well supported. We are not yet sure for how many months the antibodies from vaccination would last. Whether the antibodies produced by the infection or by the vaccination will be able to face the mutated strains? When the durability and effectiveness of the vaccine itself is a hope, then how can we be optimistic that the third or subsequent waves will be weaker?

Vaccination messed up

Though currently available vaccines do not guarantee protection against infection and transmission of COVID19 infection, they are highly effective in reducing the severity of the illness if someone is infected by COVID19 virus after vaccination. At present, the vaccines are considered as the most potent weapons against the COVID 19 pandemic. Even then it cannot be guaranteed that by mass vaccination we can eradicate the COVID19 virus from the community.

Let us hope that the repeated waves of COVID 19 virus may be weakened through vaccination, but in India when will we be able to vaccinate the entire population? India is now at second position in administering COVID 19 vaccine after the US but given the size of its population, the country is far behind the desired target. India has administered 19.4 crore doses of vaccine as per today; 4.19 crore people have received both the doses and it accounts to 3.1% of the population. In US 39.8% and in UK 34.4% of the population is already vaccinated with two doses.

Even if India decides to vaccinate all adult population, a study released this week by the Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and the National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE) said - it will take another six to seven months to inoculate the whole country. This mathematical calculation may not be the reality. According to a report by BusinessToday.in when 70% of the population is vaccinated, the country achieves herd immunity. And for India to reach that number, it would take another 8 years and 9 months going by the current pace of vaccination.

Unfortunately, the whole vaccination process is messed up at the moment. For starters, the government has not ordered enough vaccines. While India needs around 2 billion doses to vaccinate the eligible population with two doses each, barely 12% have received one dose. In fact, till very recently the government had only put in orders for 100 million doses of Covishield, the important vaccine for India’s vaccination programme. Since then it has added another order of 110 million doses of Covishield. The other vaccine, Covaxin, is similarly under-provisioned with an initial order of 8 million followed by a recent order of another 50 million. Perhaps even more troubling is that the annual production capacity of Serum Institute of India (SII), which produces 90% of vaccines in India, is currently around 700 million doses which they are hoping to ramp up to 1.2 billion doses. Bharat Biotech’s annual production capacity is even lower at around 150 million doses. Clearly, these two entities do not have the capacity to vaccinate India on their own. The government neither ordered any other vaccine nor did it invest in increasing the production capacity of these two producers until very recently. It appears that there is no proper planning in procurement and distribution of the vaccines.

On this background, it appears that our present vaccination process may not be able to halt the third wave of COVID 19 in our country.

Third wave inevitable

At present it appears that the third wave is inevitable in our country. Vijay Raghavan, the Principal Scientific Advisor, has recently stated that the third wave could possibly be avoided if people continue to take strong measures. It appears that our people are tired of restrictions and are almost numb to the warnings.

If we can speed up our vaccination drive and vaccinate as many as possible, probably the number of cases may be reduced in the third wave. We are not able to achieve required vaccination target. Therefore it is almost sure that we will get a third wave of COVID19 sooner or later.

Will the third wave affect only children?

It is presumed that the third wave would affect children more than the adults as most of the adults will be vaccinated. As explained above, at the present pace of vaccination we will be far behind the expected target when the third wave will hit us. There will be more number of non-vaccinated adults than children.

Recently the Indian Academy of Pediatrics (IAP) has said that though children remain susceptible to infection, it was highly unlikely that the third wave will predominantly or exclusively affect children. The experts also said that there was no evidence to suggest that most children with COVID-19 infection would have severe disease in the third wave.

Children are as susceptible as adults and older individuals to develop infection, but not severe disease. However, almost 90 per cent of the infections in children are mild or asymptomatic. The most important reason for this is because the children do not have a specific receptor for COVID19 virus to bind and enter into children’s system. A very small percentage of infected children develop moderate-severe disease. If there is a massive increase in the overall numbers of infected individuals, a large number of children with moderate-severe disease will be seen. It is highly unlikely that the third wave will predominantly or exclusively affect children.

Let us be prepared

Our policy makers have to anticipate a potential third wave of COVID19 and prepare for it. They should not repeat the mistakes that were made after the first wave. Before the third wave, they have to ensure that our entire health system is capable of handling any surge in cases. They should ensure that oxygen and beds' supplies are maintained, and also that there is no sudden drug shortage of the kind that we are witnessing now.

The ruling policy makers have to adopt a transparent and non-partisan approach in managing the spread of COVID 19 virus. Proper data collation and exchange, accelerating vaccination, equitable distribution of vaccines, medicines and other facilities will go a long way in containing the virus at national level. The other most important aspect is expanding and empowering rural infrastructure.

As the common citizens of this country we have to follow the ‘COVID appropriate behavior’ till the virus leaves us. A three-ply mask, frequent hand washing or sanitizing, maintaining physical distance, avoiding crowd, especially indoors, are still most effective in controlling the waves of COVID-19 virus. When one gets the opportunity to take vaccine, it has to be taken. These are our duties to prevent the spread of the virus.

 

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Comment on this article

  • John, Mangalore

    Sun, May 30 2021

    Monty Dotor, Doctors should have raised concern about these elites vaccines. First of all not tested on animals first. Hurriedly short term tested, pushed before the mutants so to blame any second wave deaths on mutants. These bio weapon viruses vaccines mostly bio weapons only, to inject viruses in the body, only to compromise human immune system and multiply viruses in the body and spread it around. Divine message confirming same about western vaccines in message to John Leary dated Thursday, May 20, 2021... Jesus said: “My son, I showed you this evil yellow liquid before, to tell you that the evil ones already have made the next virus. The second vision of blood in the sink, is a sign that many people will die from this new virus that will kill many vaccinated people. The Covid vaccine is a bioweapon that was designed to kill the vaccinated people, and have them spread the virus to the unvaccinated people. When the new wild virus is released, this will kill the vaccinated people. You can use your Good Friday oil to help heal the vaccinated people, or they could be healed at My refuges. I will bring My Warning before this new virus is released, so I will give sin

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  • John, Mangalore

    Sun, May 30 2021

    Monti Dotor, Doctors should have raised concern about these elites vaccines. First of all not tested on animals first. Hurriedly short term tested, pushed before the mutants so to blame any second wave deaths on mutants. These bio weapon viruses vaccines mostly bio weapons only, to inject viruses in the body, only to compromise human immune system and multiply viruses in the body and spread it around. Divine message confirming same about western vaccines in message to John Leary dated Thursday, May 20, 2021... Jesus said: “My son, I showed you this evil yellow liquid before, to tell you that the evil ones already have made the next virus. The second vision of blood in the sink, is a sign that many people will die from this new virus that will kill many vaccinated people. The Covid vaccine is a bioweapon that was designed to kill the vaccinated people, and have them spread the virus to the unvaccinated people. When the new wild virus is released, this will kill the vaccinated people. You can use your Good Friday oil to help heal the vaccinated people, or they could be healed at My refuges. I will bring My Warning before this new virus is released, so I will give sin

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  • jayant prabhune, Mumbai

    Sat, May 29 2021

    I use tulsi drops daily. Kept me away from covid despite coming in contact with covid + persons a few times. So I guess it works . Every should try

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  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Sat, May 29 2021

    Also, it's known to spread through mucous membrance of the eyes & also present in sewage water, I don't understand, how with our pathetic general hygeinic standards we can vanquish this?

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  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Sat, May 29 2021

    IMHO, more than third wave, the likes of opportunistic black fungus et all will steal the limelight as we are the diabetes capital of the world and also the amount of malnutrition & ignorance spread in our huge population; where administration itself is advocating use of cow ablutions, which is a sure shot way to spread all these opportunistic infections at a rapid pace considering the aseptic climate spread by dumping & haphazardly cremating decaying bodies!

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  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Sat, May 29 2021

    @Rudolf John and Dev. This Covid 19 has a low mortality in percentage terms, though the total number is apparently high( apparently because comorbidies may have caused deaths in many if not all cases) , some people definitely benefit financially in crisis situations, at the cost of majority of population and country's economy. Before retirement I as an ENT surgeon never wore a mask while examining patients ( wore mask during surgery only),my patients also could not wear a mask as I had to look into their throat and nose. I never fell ill or remained absent for a single day in my life ,the credit goes to my patients who gave me immunity . I believe in John's contention of China being responsible intentionally or inadvertently for the release of this virus though it is not genetically engineered.Imagine what will happen if they release more deadly viruses in future ( e.g smallpox), we elders have immunity but what about our children ( next generation). I have written to PM and WHO ,hope they do something concrete.

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  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Sat, May 29 2021

    IMHO, majority of deaths in hospitals is due to failure of basic sterile protocols with equipment and other tools which was just inevitable to follow due to the overwhelming situation; just see the condition of our government run hospitals especially in the northern states, some worse than cowsheds! Now a spate of opportunistic infections will follow which is normal after so many deaths! Deadly black fungus and it's siblings will take over; so, better we get ready to conquer them! Also, our economy is in jitters; most middle class families are on the verge of begging having exhausted all their savings!

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  • Dev, Mangalore

    Sat, May 29 2021

    I salute you Dr Monty. Yeah science or theories including assumptions are to be examined and tested to prove their veracity which is through questioning and not by running away or burrying their heads in sand like Ostrich by just attaching science label. SJ needs to see my previous comments to know why or how deaths happened and compare the present deaths to previous years to know there's no spike in them but only publicity of present including fear factors. The present daily death rate is 7.3 % which is same in previous years too. Another question by him what you will do or where will you go if infected in 3rd wave- I get my daily dose of viruses and bacteria without any barriers, for this reason my immunity gets primed daily. From 3 decades + I never take any medicines for colds and fever, I take lots of fluids and take rest, within 12 hours my fever ends and I'm back to normal next day itself. If I or any of my family gets infected I'll follow 55000+ times proven Dr Biswaroop's Flu Diet. I never am worried as I'm well informed unlike media educated herd mentality people to fear a mole which is painted as monster by media.

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  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Sat, May 29 2021

    @Dev, SJ , John and Melroy.Everyone has a right to ask questions including patients, doctors and laymen.(The person's aadhaar - who asks the question be mentioned but not published so that there are no fakes)The questions should be put on public domain and govt. should answer them, this would amount to something just short of "informed consent" before taking any medication or vaccine.BTW I am pro traditional vaccines like Covaxin, but anti lockdown for both waves(as it has helped spread to others in cities and towns and to villages due to migration) and masks ( though I wear one when I go out just because I follow rules)- esp for the first wave.

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  • John, Mangalore

    Sat, May 29 2021

    Dotor, Interesting, Please search in youtube for Bill gates and aadhaar. Why he is involved or promoted that in the first place? His plans is to control all human being with high tech, nano, quantum dot luciferase technology, western mRNA vaccines, using with AI, 5G and Communist advance surveilance technology (like that being used in controlling the traffic) and make humans to transhumans. Technology merged with humans or making them controllable robots. (This is all censored By Elites, Big Tech, BigPharma, search with DuckDuckGo before they control that also).This single Id info finally goes as single nano or microchip in the body including vaccination info. They will say it for security, safety, travel, for business and easier check and access. In future or it is almost here in these mobile technology times, only Vaccinated will be able to travel or do business as mentioned in Book of Revelation Ch 13:16-18 but Rev 16:2 warns of God's wrath Sores on body, to those who are so chipped. Bill Gates involvement or investment in all three western vaccines or vaccine industry around the world, it is no secret. Cheaper covishield may be the cause of this second wave to raise the fear bar so more people fall into his vaccination trap. Or may be elites and communist chinese using their other strains for more fear and more vaccination. This is all his and communist chinese Global plans to bring new world order using numbering system instead of God given name and using high tech vaccines so these people can be easily controlled or decimated or in the first place no chance to rebel as their are totally technologically surveilled and controlled, no privacy at all!. That's why social distance brainwash in the first place for this airborne virus for easier future scans like toll gate scans for travel, business and easier movement or total communist control without any bullets! or total enslavement!

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  • Melroy C.F.Fernandes, Mangalore

    Sat, May 29 2021

    Please do your research about UID(alias Aadhaar) and you will not want to recommend it again, under the law that it was conceived. The govt. does not need to make public anybody's identity in any form when they provide information in the public domain. It is the most powerful who have to be the most transparent.

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  • Dev, Mangalore

    Fri, May 28 2021

    Dr Tharun Kothari has asked 10 questions from IMA. First was how come covid 19 test kits were imported in 2018? He has the evidence who knew covid will be in 2019 even 2 years before. Who recommended RTPCR test which never detects whether one has any infection at all? How many people died after vaccinations but blamed on covid? Dr K K Agarwal died due to vaccine injury but covered up as infection despite fully vaccinated. 250 doctors who died were vaccinated too. Where is proof that the deaths occurred due to corona? How many deaths happened due to asthma, COPD, pneumonia, TB, lung cancer? If there are no deaths due to these diseases then which miracle healed them? Were deaths recorded due to adverse drug reactions from experimental administration of medicines? Who barred other wings of health care like Ayurvedic, homeopathic & naturopaths from treating the people when alopathy has no specific treatment but symptomatic? Lancet Peer reviewed study finds that only 1.3% people got immunity after 2 doses despite tall claims like 75 to 95%. Again their propaganda of less severe if infected which requires no hospitalization too proved a lie. Only natural infections give long term immunity unlike limited immunity of around 3 months is now proven too. Again as some claim Pfizer or Moderna or Astra Zeneka aren't given FDA approval. They are only given Emergency use permission that's like using human guinea pigs, If anything happens the injuries are irreversible. Already kids tested in US started to die just like some adults from doctors and nurses who lost their lives for these experimental vaccines. No need for any lockdown measures and protocols or vaccines for a disease which has 99.997% recovery rate.

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  • S. J., Mangalore

    Fri, May 28 2021

    I hope readers of this article do not take your comments and few more from John seriously because your thought process is not scientific. Who is Dr. Kothari who asked questions and where he asked? Your reactions should be specific to the issues Dr. Edward Nazareth has raised here...he says third wave of COVID19 is inevitable and we have to prepare for it. Do you have anything to say to this? If we go by your arguments why so many people died? Do you think entire medical community all over the world is corrupted? Come on, if you get the disease where will you go?

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  • Melroy C.F. Fernandes, Mangalore

    Fri, May 28 2021

    Whoever has asked the above questions, they are valid, i too want to know the answers but we will never know the answers because " the umpires are also the players".

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  • John, Mangalore

    Sat, May 29 2021

    S. J, Not scientific? Following few excerpts of an article titled, Doctors for Truth: Tens of Thousands Medical Professionals Suing and Calling for End to COVID Tyranny by Brian Shilhavy Editor, Health Impact News, Tens of thousands, and perhaps now even hundreds of thousands of doctors, nurses, and many other medical professionals worldwide are taking action to combat the misinformation being propagated by governments and government-controlled media that continue to publish false propaganda regarding COVID. The vast majority of medical professionals worldwide now seem to agree that the COVID “pandemic” and the government actions still being implemented in response to COVID are causing much more harm than COVID itself Almost all of these doctors and medical professionals now seem to agree that COVID is no worse than a typical flu season, and the main test being used to supposedly test for COVID, the PCR Test, is not reliable.... These doctors and medical professionals are fighting censorship and ridicule from the ruling classes, the corporate media, and the Big Tech Social Media giants. COVID is, first and foremost, an INFORMATION WAR, and unless Americans can learn how to turn off their cable news programs with their BILLIONS in funding, mainly from Big Pharma, and take the time to research the issues for themselves, the Globalists will unleash their vaccines and other untested products while also causing social unrest in their effort to implement their New World Order... for more technicalities or details please refer link, https://healthimpactnews.com/2020/doctors-for-truth-tens-of-thousands-medical-professionals-suing-and-calling-for-end-to-covid-tyranny/

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  • Dev, Mangalore

    Sat, May 29 2021

    @ S J , Whatever I stated is at present in public domain, Do some search you will find. Again IMA has to answer the questions raised by Dr Kothari and not by laymen. All doctors are not corrupt but they are mislead by WHOwhich is corrupt controlled by Bill Gates who is the evil intent person in a sheepskin. All these things were tried in 2008 and failed due to whistle blower and CNN did the rest. For this reason this time he is controlling the media through his funds and a pandemic hoax with fake tests never approved by any FDA and fake narrative about asymptomatic spreading is created. For your information- around 171 doctors have written a letter to PM , every MP, every state CM exposing the hoax with scientific evidence to end this lockdown measures and protocols. Ask your MP who can't read or understand scientific language whether he has it. Again in Haryana 36 village Panchayat have decided to defy govt lockdown measures and declared theirvillages are govt offices and official mukt as they have declared they are the govt which has told them they will take care of their health. When DSP went with posse of police vehicles to enforce lockdown people gheraoed their vehicles until they were forced to retreat. Haryana Model would end the fake pandemic soon.

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  • J.F.D SOUZA, Attavar, Mangalore

    Fri, May 28 2021

    In your article you have given a good information in all respects with regard to Covid 19. About second para yes we have failed miserably to prepare for the second wave thus it is aggravated. Now people have to suffer badly. However the Govt. has to take precautionery measures for the third wave which is anticipated soon. You have narrated this matter in a well manner.

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  • John, Mangalore

    Fri, May 28 2021

    Evil Elites and communist chinese preplanned waves to blame ? 1st wave due to preplanned virus Leak at chinese Wuhan lab (Bill Gates' and other Elites' Event 201 simulation in Oct 2019)? 2nd wave to due Covid injections, hurriedly tested, short term tested pre-researched shots before the mutants, so they could blame on mutants, using 1918 'Socialist' Spanish Flu model ? (Bill Gates pre warned of this type of virus in 2015 in his Ted Talk). 3rd wave may be due to spraying reflecting chemicals and viruses also? high in the sky in the name of reducing global warming, a Bill Gates' Sun dimming Project to cool the Earth and / or spraying viruses to target vaccinated people through chemtrails? These Billionaires they must have anti-dotes and to get good return on their Investment, (he, Bill Gates says 20:1 in vaccine business in his Ted Talk), they choose vaccine business, to rake billions in the name of few millions in philanthropy and some commission to push their vaccines. Same time generating billion dollor business for their computer, techology and online businesses. Then they buy large farm lands in case or to bring stock market down? so elites and communist chinese can control the world easily, winning the wars because of other nations' collapse of economy and industries due to these shutdowns, to decimate population and to bring their new world order? Doctors, common man are suffering and greedy elites, communists chinese are behind money, power, control and rule?

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  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Fri, May 28 2021

    @Geoffrey . Yes the virus mutates and the spike protein can change ( I do not know if they use the same terminology for change and mutate). “B.1.617 has 13 mutations that result in amino acid changes. B.1.617 has been described as a ‘double mutant’. This term is used to refer to two mutations in spike (E484Q and L452R) . Because of the change in spike many countries have labeled this as a variant of concern.

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  • Dr. Edward Nazareth, Mangalore

    Fri, May 28 2021

    Yes, it is true. Genetic mutations of viruses like SARS-CoV-2 are labelled “variants of concern”, because they can reinfect people who have had a previous infection or vaccination, or are more transmissible or can lead to more severe disease. There are 44 mutations reported in S proteins(spike proteins) of the virus that binds to ACE-2 receptors of the humans and causes infection leading to the COVID-19 disease. The variant B 1.617 has been found to be more transmissible, meaning infection is more likely to occur in those exposed to the strain, especially those who are unvaccinated. It is not known whether this variant leads to worse illness or clinical outcomes. Most of the currently approved vaccines around the world have been found to evoke an immune response to some extent against multiple variants. But no trials have yet been undertaken on the effectiveness of vaccines against these new mutations.

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  • Melroy C.F.Fernandes, Mangalore

    Fri, May 28 2021

    Grateful to Dr. Nazareth for his educative articles and his search for the truth. Below are quotes from the present article that should be mulled over and self-satisfying, reasonable answers found : Para 5: Normally .......... during its subsequent runs, there would be less number of susceptible people as most of them would have gained immunity from previous infections. Para 6: The pandemic is on the retreat in America, thanks to an aggressive vaccination campaign Para 7: Both America and Europe could control the virus by targeted lockdowns and aggressive vaccination. Para10: Except for vaccination, many people were also infected in US and Europe in the first and second wave. Even then they were hit by the third wave why we will not? Para 11: We are still not sure why the COVID 19 virus is attacking in wave forms.......... Can anyone guarantee that the virus will not mutate again? Para 12: We are not yet sure for how many months the antibodies from vaccination would last. Para 13: Though currently available vaccines do not guarantee protection against infection and transmission of COVID19 infection, they are highly effective in reducing the severity of the illness..... Even then it cannot be guaranteed that by mass vaccination we can eradicate the COVID19 virus from the community. Last para: till the virus leaves us..................... ?????????????????????????????????????????? I fully agree with the 1st 2 paras of “Let us be prepared” . My observation is that more people are dying from fear, panic and lack of good medical facilities and advice at the appropriate time. There is absolutely no problem in getting infected with SARS-CoV-19. Only those with co-morbidities, weak immune system and health need to be given all the attention. COVID is not the mass killer it is being made out to be. Life must be returned to normal immediately. People who do any form of light or manual labour under hot & humid conditions cannot work using 3 ply nose masks!

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  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Fri, May 28 2021

    @Krishna Dasa. Covishield (Astrazeneca) is made from adenovirus not corona, it only has a spike protein of corona .This spike protein has changed after mutation.This explains the death of Dr K K Agarwal ( expresident of Indian Medical Association) 2 cops in Mangalore and 1 ACP and one SI in Tamilnadu due to Covid, even after 2 doses. Some doctors in Bangalore also died after 2 doses. Because of blood clots this vaccine is banned in many countries in the West. Dr.Kapila of New Jersey US had taken 2 doses of Pfizer vac but died in Delhi due to Cover. Our own Covaxin made the traditional way is much better, but only time will tell.

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  • geoffrey, hat hill

    Fri, May 28 2021

    Monty, in a recent debate, Kiran Mazumdar, CEO Biocon, answering a query posed by Sadguru Jaggi, made it very clear that the spike protein of virus DOESN'T mutate, it's the RNA that mutates. The debate is available on YouTube. Also no vaccine claims 100% efficacy. The deaths after 2 doses that you claim can very well be attributed to it.

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  • Francis Martis, Barkur/usa.

    Fri, May 28 2021

    The keys by John are discouraging. He must read and listen to what Dr. Edward Nazareth says, his article is she opener to everyone. John, stop writing but read his full article.

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  • Krishna Dasa, Udupi,.

    Fri, May 28 2021

    The second wave is not seems to be weakening at the national level. It is migrating from large metropolitan cities to thousands of small villages in northern & central states. (rural agricultural area) Rural India does not have required health care centers or accountability about in testing, counting and record keeping. So it is impossible to rule out of weakening of the COVID 19 virus. We are in Rambarosa situation. trusting ourselves and not the Government. Covid 19 may make India has failed state with uncontrollable inflation in coming months and years.

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  • Dr.S.Kamath, Mumbai

    Fri, May 28 2021

    Dr.Edward you have written about Covishield and Covaxin only what about Sputnik Sputnik has shared technical know how with about 8 Vaccine manufcturers including one in Bengaluru also ,They are likely to produce 10 million everymonth Apart from direct imports by Dr Reddys laboratories .Hence we will be able to finish atleast First dose vaccination to 90% of population by t his year end .Indias vaccination speed is not the problem its lack of vaccines

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  • Ben D'Souza Prabhu, Mangalore, Bombay Bandra now in Canada

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Thank you very much indeed for your well narrative article once again, Dear Dr. Edward Nazareth, about the " so called waves " of COVID-19. Numerous Confirmed Reports candidly indicate that this VIRUS of CHINA escaped from its WUWAN LABS. Initially, all Western Media supported by the corrupt W. H. O. Officials started their assertive say in this matter. Now, they are trying to say that, the Virus did not escape but was leaked to the Universe. Common sence dictates that this Deadly Virus was " Sufficiently Weapenized " and released by our Great Friend, CHINA. It is now reported in some quarters that it is being ' PUMPED ' PERIODICALLY which we call as " WAVES ". We have now reached to this stage. Only Our Compassionate Almighty Will Try To Solve It ! ! !

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  • Francis Martis, Barkur/usa.

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Dr Nazereth, thanks for your input a real she opener. This article must be published and broadcast in all newspapers and television. What he says is absolutely correct. Our country has failed in planning and preparedness, millions lost their lives. We must at least learn from US and Europe. Make agreements with Phyzer and Moderns for supply of vaccines, initiate more testing. Following right way only road to success.

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  • Lavina Noronha, Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Thank you Dr. Edward Nazareth for one more write up on COVID-19 and its management. If our policy makers and leaders at the National and State level take heed and act on the advise given by experts and expedite the procurement and delivery of vaccines, it is possible to avoid further loss of lives. Unfortunately, those in power are clueless when it comes to science and are too bull-headed to listen to reason. Public callousness like you have mentioned in the article is also responsible for the pandemic reaching disastrous proportions. Murderous intentions are evident in those who are still conducting parties, weddings, ceremonies and worship defying norms and rules. God help us!

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  • M A RAHIM, Mangalore/moodbidri

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Thanks Dr EDWARD for enlightening us through your in-depth knowledge. Now people should adhere to doctors advice to keep the THIRD WAVE from approaching us

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  • S. J., Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    One more excellent article from Dr. Edward Nazareth. It has to be an eye-opener to all of us. We should not lower the covid appropriate behaviour once the second wave subsides. It is better if we share our comments on the topic under discussion, rather than sharing baseless and personal opinions on vaccines and treatment. Some are in the habit of writing irrelevant, unscientific comments which have no base.

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  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Covid 19 has a mortality rate of around 0.04 %. Many other illnesses have a higher mortality. If there were no lockdowns there would have been no migration,and our villages would have been safe.Fear and panic with patients rushing to hospitals where deaths have occurred due to hospital crossinfection , fires, stoppage of oxygen supply, and mucormycosis.Recently there was a phone in program about "black fungus". I asked a question "How are ventilators sterilized" , my worst fears were conformed when an "expert" said that ventilators need not be sterilized!!! On further questioning the "expert" said "I do not want to answer your question " and then my call was disconnected!! (I have an audio recording of the conversation)There are certain parts e.g tubes which are single use( but used for multiple patients if I am not mistaken), certain parts ( depending on the type of ventilator) like cannulae, connectors,masks, filters, ambu bag, valves etc have to be sterilized or disinfected.Those who have visited hospitals would have noticed that the same oxygen mask is used in the next patient without sterilization. Who (WHO) is responsible for all this, certainty not the virus!!!

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  • John, Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Vaccines or Bio weapons ? specially western vaccines? Following article on health impact news says so, in which 5 Western well qualified Doctors including 4 women Doctors warn Big Pharma vaccines themselves are Bio weapons and why? (Looks like elites and communists chinese are playing hidden war to control the world with these viruses and vaccines to bring their depopulated new world order.) Ref: https://healthimpactnews.com/2021/urgent-5-doctors-agree-that-covid-19-injections-are-bioweapons-and-discuss-what-to-do-about-it/

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  • Krishna Dasa, Udupi,.

    Fri, May 28 2021

    Mr. John Mangalore, Western Vaccines like PFZER, MADORNA and JOHNSON & JOHNSON are properly researched, tested and approved by independent experts, Government agencies & manufactures. The USA based vaccine & medicine manufacturers are multi national very large companies and have to have proper research report on their products to protect it share holders and reputations. USA government alone spent 10 billion dollars in research & development of these vaccines. Western vaccines are safe and it provided evidence by controlling the pandemic in USA & Israel. Covid shield vaccine is OXFORD ASTRAZNICA (British) licensed product. World does not know much about the research report, efficacy & evidence of Russian, Chines & Indian made vaccines

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  • Joe GONSALVES, Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Dr. Edward Nazareth all along has tried his best to make available adequate data and details regarding the prevailing situation - duly warning and advising The Public. What is necessary is adequate care in terms peoples' behavior and relevant attitude. Dr. Edward Nazareth has made a deep study of the prevailing situation and his views of what may turn out. I join several others in thanking Dr. Edward for the trouble he is taking to keep the country informed and helping people.

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  • John, Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Ruthless communists chinese will outsmart these 'experts' by bringing in one more virus other than covid mutant from their evil bio factory and their sidekick WHO will take ages to find solution or will not allow to use existing medicines also make experts clueless? Better use or involve military bio weapon / medical experts!

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  • SachiN, ManglorE

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Nice and meaningful article. ** Though a few experts warned about the second wave, it fell on deaf ears. ** Yes our bad luck

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  • John, Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Greed and Ignorance is the cause for the second wave ? Big Pharma is only money minded also existing cheaper medicine they never suggest or advise to use, but expensive Remsdesvir. Many of the doctors and health officials seems are sponsored by these elites and Big Pharma. Doctors at fault? Not using common sense and leaning too much on communist leaning WHO ? (Who supports BigPharma) Following Divine message on why real cures like ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine not being used ? in a message to John Leary dated April 19, 2021... Jesus said: “My people, you have heard the one world people proclaim that with viruses and vaccines they could reduce the world’s population by 15% or more. It is the devil who is prompting the development of pandemic viruses. These same evil ones are preventing real cures like ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine from being used to heal people from Covid-19. Your evil pharma people are making money on creating vaccines that will kill your people with the next bad virus. This is why I have repeated many times: ‘Do not take any virus vaccine or flu shot because they are designed to kill you.’ The evil ones are using the media to try and get as many people as possible to take the deadly vaccines. These vaccines will change your DNA and they will kill people according to their plan. The vaccinated people can be saved by being blessed by the Good Friday oil and their belief that I can heal them at My refuges. Those vaccinated people, who do not seek My healing, will be killed with the next virus release. This is a deadly plan to purposely reduce the population where China spread this disease on purpose. I will bring My Warning and healing to protect My people before the next virus is released. I will bring My victory over these evil ones, as they will be killed and cast into the eternal flames of hell. Trust in My words and My healing for My faithful. Have patience and you will be healed by your faith in My healing power.”

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  • John, Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    Thousands of Covid 19 healings as per testimonies received by Gifted and Anointed Priest Fr Dr Jose Vettiyankal of Logos Retreat Centre, Bangalore who conducts free online healing prayer service everyday between 15:00 to 16:30 for all faiths, including doctors. And he blesses the Oil for healing, online. Following video of today's service https://youtube.com/watch?v=_gVZ3egWYFo

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  • AN, Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    You need help.

    DisAgree [17] Agree [13] Reply Report Abuse

  • John, Mangalore

    Thu, May 27 2021

    AN, This is an eye opener article by Mike Adams at cairnsnews.org on how globalists using viruses, vaccine generated strains, to decimate much population, following few excerpts, for more refer link, ... "The end goal, as globalists like Bill Gates openly support, is the elimination of billions of human beings living today. Ideally, globalists seek to reduce the world population to about 500 million people, which is roughly a 94% reduction in the current human population."... Thus, people won’t be dropping dead right away after taking the vaccines. Instead, they will seem fine until the next major bioweapon pandemic hits them, at which point the fatality rate will be extremely high (perhaps as high as 75% averaged across all age groups). The next strain to be released via the vaccines will be COVID-21, and the COVID-21 strain could be rightly considered the second half of a binary weapon system that will achieve extremely high kill rates for human beings across the globe.... Ref: https://cairnsnews.org/2020/10/22/covid-21-is-coming-the-second-half-of-a-binary-weapons-system/

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Title: Third wave of COVID19: Preventable or inevitable in India? - <i>By Dr Edward Nazareth</i>



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