Second wave of COVID19: Are we prepared? - By Dr Edward Nazareth















By Dr Edward Nazareth

Nov 9: As the numbers of COVID 19 positive cases are steadily declining and the deaths due to the complications of this infection are less, it is natural for people to express a sigh of relief now. Many are hoping that by the end of this year, that is by another two months we may discard the tiring masks, forego social distancing and return to our activities of normal living, the life we were living exactly a year ago. But, will that be possible?

The resurgence of infection and fresh lockdown in many countries of Europe is a warning to us; we may have to be careful. In the months of March, April and May, Europe as a whole reported between 35,000 and 38,000 new COVID19 cases every day, at its peak. The numbers steadily declined in Europe but the new cases in United States, and, later, India were at its peak and these emerged as the epicenters of the epidemic. In the months of June, July, and even August, Europe reported less than 20,000 cases a day, almost a third or fourth of what India alone was reporting.

In the last one month, however, there has been a significant rise in cases in Europe. The second wave of infections in Europe is far worse than the first. On 8 November 2020, more than 9 million( 90,63,320) new cases are reported in the European Union and the UK: France (17,48,705), Spain (13,28,832), United Kingdom (11,71,441), Italy (9,02,490), Germany (6,58, 505). Whereas, in India the number of new cases are 50,356 on 7th November and on 8th November 45,674.

As the number of infected cases declined, many countries across the world lifted their lockdown restrictions and began to unlock the process. However, the recent resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Europe has yet again forced the countries to retrace their steps back to imposing lockdown measures to control the spread of virus.

Will it be dangerous?

In March 1918, towards the final years of the First World War, the first wave of Spanish Flu was observed. Like COVID 19, the early wave of Spanish Flu was thought to be brought by Chinese laborers who were working in Europe. It spread first in the European war zones and soldiers on all sides took the disease deep into their countries as they returned or were released from prisons. By June 1918, the infection had reached Australia, Russia, China, India, Africa, Japan, and most of Europe. Then in July 1918, the infection subsided. The first wave was mild, many people fell sick, but the mortality remained so low that virtually no quarantine measures were imposed. Then in September 1918, the second wave arrived. By that time the infection had reached all over the world and it proved to be extremely deadly. In the first wave, the victims were mostly the very young or the very old – and younger ones were spared with little or no symptoms as it happened with COVID19.

But the second wave of Spanish Flu in the winters of 1918 showed what is called the W-Curve, where a high number of deaths were among the young and old, but also a huge spike was seen in the middle, healthy 25 to 35 years, in the prime of their life. Within 3 to 4 months of the second wave of Spanish Flu in 1918, the US lost 300,000 lives, Mumbai reported 15,000 deaths in a population of 1 million, and across India the death toll was about 20 million within this short span of time.

We do not know how the second wave of COVID19 will affect us. Will it repeat the history of the Spanish Flu? While we have only experienced the implications of the COVID19 virus in the summer, we do not know what the winter season has in store for us.

Why ‘the second wave’?

Though we are not very sure the reasons for this renewed surge in Europe and the US, two possible factors are pointed out. One-there has been a general lowering of safety measures after the numbers began to dip in the summer, people started travelling, partying without precautions. The second factor could be the drop in temperature that is pushing most activities indoors in these affected countries. The cold, dry weather could also be helping the virus survive longer and remain potent, though the evidence on that is not conclusive.

The possibility of disappearance of antibodies to COVID 19 in asymptomatic infected individuals cannot be ruled out. As reported, the antibodies likely to last not more than 90 days. It means, there is possibility of many individuals who were infected, were asymptomatic getting infected again. This fact is yet to be established.

Though change in the climate is not in our hands, precautions could have avoided the second wave. For example, Australia could avoid a major surge during the winter because of much better compliance with wearing masks. In Australia there has been a significant decline in cases of flu, because people have been wearing masks. The people in Australia did not give up masks and they were able to avoid the second wave. This important message has to reach everyone.

Is this a new strain?

A new study, published recently on a pre-print server (yet to be peer-reviewed), suggests that travel within Europe, particularly Spain, could be spreading the virus. It reports that a new variant of the virus, first detected amongst people in Spain in July, has now spread through many countries in Europe. Named 20A.EU1, this variant is particularly prevalent in the UK, Switzerland, the Netherlands, France and Norway. It accounts for the majority of the recent infections in Europe, and was dispersed across Europe by travelers to and from Spain.

However, the study also says there was no direct evidence to suggest that this new variant spread faster than others, or that it resulted in more serious disease. In effect, while the new variant is becoming dominant, it is not yet clear whether it is also leading to the rapid rise in numbers.

Second wave in India

In India, the number of daily new cases touched a peak in the middle of September, and has been declining ever since. On September 16, India detected 97,894 new cases, the highest for any country in a day. Currently between 45,000 and 50,000 new cases are being detected.

But states like Delhi, Haryana and Kerala are already witnessing a fresh wave of infections. It is believed that, Delhi is going through a third wave now, having seen two cycles of peaks earlier — each peak higher than the previous one.

It is not possible to predict, whether India will also go through a Europe-like resurgence during the winters. The experts have been warning of the risk in the festival season and the approaching winter when air pollution too will be high. The impact of festivals and elections in states like Bihar might become evident only by another few weeks from now.

However in most parts of India, winter is not as severe as in Europe and people hardly remain indoor. This might save many parts of India from a severe second wave like situation of Europe. But, that is not certain.

Better to be cautious

We have to be cautious now. We do not know how this deadly virus will behave in the winter season in our country. We have only seen this virus in summer, the times when it was probably weaker, and its effect in winters remains to be watched. There is also a growing threat of combination infections – where COVID 19 is coming with dengue, malaria and other infections. Even the USA is bracing for a combination infection season of seasonal flu and COVID19. We have to remember the Spanish Flu second wave of a century ago which affected young and healthy. We may not like to wear a mask, may hate social distancing, may like to celebrate Deepavali, Christmas and New Year as we did before, however, we should remember COVID19 has not gone. No matter how much we dislike it, life cannot go on normally with this virus still around us.

Vaccine - a hype or reality?

As written earlier in this forum, I still believe, we may have to be more skeptical about the COVID 19 vaccine. Many of the vaccines are in trial phase and we are not sure when we will get them. Some of the states have already identified the storage spaces and the means of distributing the vaccine. There is lot of uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccines also.

Recently, Dr Randeep Guleria, director of AIIMS who is also the member of the national task force on the corona virus management in the country has said that common people will have to wait till 2022 for a dose of COVID 19 vaccine.

Even if a vaccine is available by the end of this year – it would take several months for it to reach common people. Even if one gets it, there is no guarantee that it will be effective beyond a few months, as the virus is already showing the ability to mutate (alter its structure). As stated already, there are reports that the antibodies developed after the true infections disappear in a few months! If it is true, then the usefulness of the vaccine may have to be watched.

Till that day, we only have the mask, the social distance, and all other precautions that keep the virus away from us.


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Comment on this article

  • vasan, karnataka

    Fri, Nov 13 2020

    Yes we do prepared, we will gather on streets and chant, GO CORONA GO.

    DisAgree Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Thu, Nov 12 2020

    This virus is a very tricky one & new facts are coming out everyday; some people have been found to have only GI symptoms, reinfection in cured people, after effects lingering for a year, depression, risks of clot formation long after recovery, transmission through untreated sewerage water etc.

    The second wave is spreading fast, we can expect it after this festive season, but now people have become complacent and will run for cover once it raises it's head again!

    DisAgree [2] Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • C.G.Sequeira, Valencia, Mangalore

    Wed, Nov 11 2020

    Very informative and enlightening article on 'Second wave of COVID 19 by Dr.Edward Nazareth. Dr.Edward Nazareth has been doing a great service to the society by creating awareness among the people. One can fight against the pandemic by taking precaution and following the guidelines. Thank you Dr.Edward for your selfless service and concern.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • D. F. Lobo, Vamanjoor, Mangalore

    Wed, Nov 11 2020

    Informative and precautionary article. Thanks Doctor

    DisAgree [2] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Tue, Nov 10 2020

    S John,
    Most of our population is uneducated & living in abject poverty so what can you expect from them?
    Also see our population density in cities & what adherence to protocols do you expect?

    DisAgree [2] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Naveen, Mangalore

    Tue, Nov 10 2020

    Very informative article. A good reminder for all of us to not take the situation for granted and continue to follow the precautions. Thank you for this article and your concern for the greater good of our society.

    DisAgree [5] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Tue, Nov 10 2020

    The second wave of Corona which is more lethal will not spare India, & we will have to pay a heavy price as we have opened up all public places where people crowd in closed spaces flouting all protocols! Bars and restaurants are crowded throwing all caution to the winds!
    Approximately after this festival season the new wave is expected!
    In the US the infection is at it's worst phase!
    We will have to pay heavily for our for our casual attitude & complacency!

    DisAgree [6] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    Researchers at the University of Barcelona say they have detected COVID-19 in samples taken from wastewater collected in March 2019, nine months before the disease was first discovered in China.
    The potentially hugely significant finding indicates the coronavirus could have been in general circulation long before it was officially detected in Spain or the rest of the world.
    France and Italy have also each reported findings from wastewater treatment plants from before the first official cases were known.
    Researchers say that detecting the virus even just one month before it was officially discovered could have vastly improved the response to the pandemic.

    "We found traces of the virus in a single sample from March 2019 and then never again until 2020," said Albert Bosch, the university's research leader.

    "The virus concentration in the sample was at the same level as samples from March and April 2020. Maybe it wasn't detected at the time because it was flu season and nobody was looking for it."
    Both symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 shed the virus in their feces, making sewage surveillance a powerful tool for monitoring the spread of the disease throughout the community.

    The study analyzed samples from two wastewater treatment plants in Barcelona from 13 April, approximately the epidemic's peak, to 25 May. They also tested frozen archival samples from as far back as January 2018.

    The researchers first found the virus was present in Barcelona on 15 January 2020, 41 days before the first case was officially reported in the city.

    Then they ran tests on samples taken between January 2018 and December 2019 and found the presence of the virus genome in one of them, collected on 12 March 2019, nine months before the virus was first discovered in China.
    Spain's health ministry is yet to comment on the findings, but Joan Ramon Villalbi from the country's Society for Public Health and Sanitary Administration said the research was "definitely interesting".

    DisAgree [2] Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • John, Mangalore

    Tue, Nov 10 2020

    What if these corona PCR tests detect normal seasonal flu or previous years' corona viruses as Covid - 19 ? Anyways start of the winter cases will be high and there will be a second wave, but it seems to be vaccine lobby in full action to push their vaccines whether they are effective or not.

    Some serious prophecies on motives of Global vaccination in the Book of Truth which is available online also free links of it as follows, ( Book of truth mentioned in the Bible, Dan 10:21)

    DisAgree [6] Agree [7] Report Abuse

  • John, Mangalore

    Thu, Nov 12 2020

    Jesus on lies about vaccine cure rate and Pfizer's claim in a message to John Leary dated 9th and 10 th November 2020.

    Jesus said: ‘My people, I told you more people will die from the virus than the first time. They are proposing vaccines, but do not take them, because they are lying about the cure rate. You are seeing an investigation of the illegal ballots. I will allow the courts to judge these cases. It is very possible that a revolution will occur, and this is why you are seeing so many bodies buried in mass graves. This could even result in martial law. Again, if your lives are in danger, I will call My faithful to My refuges of safety. Trust in Me that I will protect My faithful from the evil ones.”

    Monday, November 9, 2020:
    Jesus said: “My people, you are facing two recent developments. One is President Trump is bringing his case of an illegal vote before the Supreme Court. The other development is that Pfizer is claiming it has a covid 19 vaccine with a 90% success rate. Any vaccine for covid 19 that is accepted, could cause a demand that everyone has to take the vaccine. This could mean a threat to your lives if you refuse to take the vaccine. Do not take the vaccine, even if they threaten to kill you. If they threaten you, you will have to come to the safety of My refuges. Your President can still win his election. The Supreme Court will decide on the facts of the election. Keep praying that your President can still win.”


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  • John, Mangalore

    Fri, Nov 13 2020


    Elon Musk on Covid tests...

    "Something extremely bogus is going on. Was tested for covid four times today. Two tests came back negative, two came back positive. Same machine, same test, same nurse. Rapid antigen test from BD."

    When asked by a Twitter user if he showed any symptoms, Musk said he had symptoms of a "typical cold".

    "Nothing unusual so far," Musk added...


    DisAgree Agree [1] Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    Veering away from the above topic, THIS VIRUS IS A VERY TRICKY ONE..
    Doi:10.1038/nindia.2020.107 Published online 7 July 2020
    The novel coronovirus SARS-CoV-2 spreads primarily via respiratory droplets. Such droplets landing on surfaces can also spread infection.

    Recent investigations, according to a review by Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur researchers, show the presence of live virus in stool samples, suggesting a possible faecal–oral transmission of COVID-19.

    Several studies have recorded patients with no trace of the novel coronavirus in their respiratory tracts. But the virus was found in their faeces and gastrointestinal tracts. The review cites reports that have found the live virus in the anal swabs or blood samples of patients while their oral swabs tested negative. These patients were likely to be considered COVID-19 negative in routine surveillance despite posing a threat to other people, according to the researchers.

    Infected faeces can easily contaminate wastewater generated from hospitals, quarantine centres and domestic households with COVID-19 cases. It can elevate the concentration of the virus in water bodies receiving untreated sewage. SARS-CoV, an earlier reported coronavirus, can survive up to 14 days at 4 °C, and for only 2 days at 20 °C in untreated sewage. The novel coronovirus has also been detected in untreated sewage worldwide.

    With around 1.8 billion people worldwide using faecal-contaminated source as drinking water, the risk of transmission of COVID-19 through untreated sewage is expected to increase by several folds, the researchers say.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Dev, Mangalore

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    Yeah, absolutely right you are.
    When I had commented based on scientists & doctors who were in the field for more than 35 years some showed their ignorance & asked me to provide evidence.
    Some think if they can't find them then they don't exist.
    Sweden no longer needs to worry about any waves as all their people went outside got daily doses of bacteria & viruses & they all got their immune system updated daily & they have herd immunity now.
    Coming to viruses or RNA particles found in different parts of the body & stool is right too. There are 120000 viruses in the environment they live within us as hosts aiding our digestive & healthy living. No test can reliably prove the RNA particles found inside the body are from corona itself as scientists haven't isolated the virus till now.
    One report claims only 6% of people in US died with corona virus & no proof they died due to corona which means only around 12000 died with corona in that country. Out of all the viruses which caused their death- adverse drug reaction, their co-morbidity or their lifestyle is a million dollar question.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [6] Report Abuse

  • Melroy C.F.Fernandes, Mangalore

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    (1)The “Spanish Flu”, as the name goes, originated in the US of A. Spain not being at war had not restricted its free press from making reports and thus Spain was the country reporting the highest numbers and hence it came to be known as the “Spanish Flu”.

    (2) The Great Hysteria and the Broken State – book by Sanjeev Sabhlok(Economist who resigned from the Australian govt. in protest against the COVID policies followed). Australia is currently being run in an autocratic manner and free citizens who believe in liberty and right of choice are revolting against it.

    (3) Sweden never made lockdowns mandatory. Sweden never forced anybody to wear masks. Sweden never forced testing and contact tracing on their citizens. The Swedes are living a near normal life and they are absolutely not waiting for a vaccine. The Swedish govt. trusted their citizens , gave them the information and knowledge and let the citizens decide what they wanted to do. Yet, their numbers are not very different from the countries that imposed draconian measures on their citizens.

    (4) At the current stage of time, the entire "wear masks in public places" is a complete sham. It is next to impossible for anybody who actually does work(physical), in the outdoors, to wear a mask in such a way as to protect him/herself or even others. My view is based on my ground level observations and experience. The types of masks being used , the way of using the mask , the duration of use of the mask etc. all render their use next to useless. Wearing a mask is fine for theoreticians and academicians who are working in a controlled environment.
    Jay Bhattacharya on masks

    Michael Yeadon on masks

    Beda Stadler on masks

    (5) The focus should only and only be on protecting the vulnerable: those above 60 and those with co-morbidities and any ailments .

    DisAgree [2] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Tue, Nov 10 2020

    Very true; using masks just for the heck of it will be counterproductive & facilitate infection instead of preventing!

    So many poor people who cannot afford food may use the same mask for different members!

    In poor & illiterate countries like India masking business is a big sham as opined by you!

    DisAgree Agree [6] Report Abuse

  • S. John, Mangalore

    Tue, Nov 10 2020

    Please see the image in the article. It is clearly shown that the mask has to be used and it has to be used in proper way.
    I do not understand why some people are so preoccupied and against the masks. All the health organizations, millions of doctors and scientists are insisting that proper use of mask can prevent infection. All of them are wrong?
    I have personal experience, how one of my friend who was against the mask went up to the ventilator. He was roaming everywhere without mask and got the infection. As his family could afford to spend nearly Rs. 4 lakshs of hospital bill he survived, but has the post-COVID sequel.
    Some people get undue pleasure by swimming against the stream, remember, it can be hazardous.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [5] Report Abuse

  • John, Mangalore

    Tue, Nov 10 2020

    Jesus on face masks and social distancing and vaccine in a Message to John Leary dated Monday, August 10, 2020: (St. Lawrence)

    Jesus said: “My people, when you stand back and you look at your new life with all of your virus precautions, you can see how the one world people have ingrained their control over you. You have never done this for any previous pandemic, and these world leaders are really preparing you for the new world order. They have brain-washed you with face masks and social distancing, so all of you are accepting these orders. There is a drive to produce a vaccine for this virus that is less deadly than the Spanish Flu. This vaccine will be harmful to your immune system, so do not take it even under threat of death. The plan is also to incorporate the computer chip in the body, so they can see if you had this shot. Refuse to take the vaccine and refuse to take any chip in the body. Eventually, they will imprison or kill those people who do not take the vaccine. You know that such vaccines are only about 20-30% effective, but the deep state people will use this to get rid of all the people who refuse this shot. Their goal is total control to prepare the way for the Antichrist’s takeover. Because your lives will be threatened if you do not take the vaccine and the mark of the beast, I will call My faithful to My refuges when they make this mandatory. Before these authorities start coming to every house to enforce mandatory chips in the body, I will give you My inner locution to come to the nearest refuge for your protection. My angels will protect you on the way to a refuge and while you are at a refuge. You will remain at My refuges throughout the entire tribulation time. You can see how close you are to the tribulation when you see this enforcement of vaccines and chips in your body. Trust in Me to protect you and provide for your needs at all of My refuges."


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  • Dev, Mangalore

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    A well researched article by Doctor again.
    If another angle to be looked into which sheds more light into viral infections then it paints a totally different picture!
    Last century Spanish Flu did affect & was deadly in the second wave though it didn't affect the younger people, the question is why? Most likely according to some research scientists as First World War was fought the nutrition level of people was poor & there was anxiety which leads to lowering of immune system which was very authentic cause of more mortality rate at that time.
    Coming to corona, it is no longer an epidemic which can be assigned the Pandemic tag for it has lower infection rate or mortality rate to be precise. In US it is said to be of 0.065% at present. World over it is believed to be even below like 0.04%!
    Another interesting factor which again might be proving deadly for many people is the present diet lacks natural benefits & nutrition that the developed nations have adopted from some decades. It is not a guessing game for any nutritionist will opine- if we don't give proper nutrition to our plants how can they yield more or without diseases? The same logic applies in human cases too.
    Another very disturbing but very difficult situation is pollution in the air with toxic fumes & exhausts of vehicles & factories which damage the lungs & their capacity to perform efficiently is most likely cause of increase in mortality rates in those cities which suffer air pollution.
    According to some doctors as well as some scientists the introduction of 5G could be lowering our immune system & causing second wave. But in India it is far from implementation as no need to worry.
    Wearing masks is one more controversial topic with different studies proving different results. Any mask that lets in air or out is no protection to the wearer or surrounding people only if they have any viral infection as they can easily spread through air too with their minute invisible size.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ivan Saldanha, Mangalore.

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    Thank You dear Dr., Enlightening and thought provoking....Things are getting to be extra normal and there is only a mirage of precautions generally a mockery. A second wave will be bad if not worse than the first. Yet, a definite protocol on the best course of treatment is not laid down and vaccine is just a myth. So, as the good Dr has explained and exhorted all need to watch out, for the good of the other.

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  • Francis, Shirva/UK

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    Once again good article by Dr Nazareth
    Comparing to the other states in India, Delhi and Kerala done good job to control the pandemic, despite this there is second wave and even third wave, that means people should not take this virus easily. Take precautions and follow the guidelines.

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  • MangaloreBun, Somewhere in Kudla

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    Dr Nazareth's articles are very informative

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  • PRAM, India/ Magalore

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    No time to be prepared. Bengal election very soon, operation kamala in progress in Bihar, Bakths are busy supporting Arnab, Rest of us busy in IPL. Only senior citizen are prepared but in depression as nobody there to talk with them....,

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  • Bhaskar, Mangalore

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    Excellent analysis and warning. Who will "listen"? Already much of the population has abandoned Covid 19 protocol. Many now improperly wear masks that are pulled down over their chins, not covering their mouths or noses. Many seem to gather closely in groups without regard to distancing per suggested recommendations. Life appears to have returned to normal with a seeming lack of awareness or concern of viral or bacterial infection. Perhaps we have developed, as you suggest, a false sense of security with the promise of the vaccines
    However, to balance such a grim prognostication in regards to the antibodies, shouldn't we consider the possible long lasting action of the memory T-Cells, and the discovery of other treatments for the illness that are being discovered both here in India and abroad? For example, I noticed that here, in District Kannada, the daily confirmed positive tests for coronavirus dropped from an average of 300 to 400 a day during the monsoon in June, July and August, to a daily rate now of below 100 per day for the last two weeks with the reduction of the monsoon cloud cover. Udupi also has seen a huge reduction. Wouldn't this suggest a possible connection between sunlight and the synthesis of Vitamin D as co-determinants of the degree of viral infections? Per your article, there are other methods presently at our disposal to deal with Covid 19 than the unknown and unproven vaccines.

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  • KA DSilva, Dubai

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    People are prepared for 2nd wave..3rd wave..., BUT the question is : are our great Governments prepared? ??!!!!

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  • Cynthia, Kirem

    Mon, Nov 09 2020

    I was expecting article from Dr. Edward and was wondering why it is not there... Wow, there his article appeared today in Daiji. Thank you so much. God bless

    DisAgree [4] Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

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Title: Second wave of COVID19: Are we prepared? - <i>By Dr Edward Nazareth</i>

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