Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi

New Delhi, Jan 9: India is likely to witness a sharp rise in lung cancer cases by 2030, with the North-East emerging as the most affected region and women registering the fastest growth in incidence, a national study published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research has revealed.

The study, which analysed data from 57 population-based cancer registries across six regions, found lung cancer incidence to be highest in the North-East. Notably, the region shows an unusual pattern for India, with lung cancer rates among women now approaching those of men. Aizawl recorded the highest burden, with age-standardised incidence rates of 35.9 per lakh among men and 33.7 per lakh among women, along with the highest mortality.

While extremely high tobacco consumption — over 68 per cent among men and 54 per cent among women — continues to be a major contributor in the region, experts say the disease profile is changing. “We are increasingly seeing lung cancer among non-smoking women, linked to indoor air pollution, biomass fuel use, second-hand smoke and occupational exposure,” said Dr Saurabh Mittal of the pulmonology department at AIIMS.

This shift is also reflected in tumour trends across the country. Adenocarcinoma has overtaken smoking-related squamous-cell carcinoma as the most common subtype. In Bengaluru, adenocarcinoma accounts for more than half of lung cancer cases among women, while Delhi has reported a sharp rise in large-cell carcinoma.

The study highlighted that southern districts such as Kannur, Kasargod and Kollam reported high lung cancer incidence among men despite relatively low tobacco and alcohol use, indicating the role of non-tobacco risk factors. Among women, Hyderabad and Bengaluru recorded the highest incidence in the south. In the north, Srinagar showed elevated rates among men, while women in Srinagar and Pulwama also reported higher incidence despite low substance use.
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Trend analysis revealed that lung cancer incidence is increasing annually by up to 6.7 per cent among women and 4.3 per cent among men in certain regions. Thiruvananthapuram recorded the steepest rise among women, while Dindigul saw the sharpest increase among men.

With tobacco use among women still below 10 per cent nationwide, researchers have pointed to worsening air quality and household exposure as key drivers of the rising burden. Projections indicate that by 2030, lung cancer incidence among men could cross 33 per lakh in parts of Kerala, while among women it could exceed 8 per lakh in cities such as Bengaluru.

The study also noted low mortality-to-incidence ratios in several regions, suggesting gaps in death reporting that may be masking the true scale of the disease burden.