Daijiworld Media Network - Jordan

Amman, Feb 17: For decades, the notion of Jordan becoming an “alternative homeland” for Palestinians was dismissed in Amman as a conspiracy theory or distant geopolitical nightmare. Today, amid the war in Gaza and policy shifts under Israel’s far-right government, that fear has resurfaced at the highest levels of the Hashemite Kingdom.

Tensions escalated after Israel’s cabinet approved measures to register large areas of the occupied West Bank as “state land” under its Justice Ministry, a move widely seen as de facto annexation. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich described it as a “settlement revolution”, signalling a shift from military administration to direct civilian control.

In Jordan, the move is being viewed as a decisive signal that the existing status quo in the West Bank is collapsing. Former deputy prime minister Mamdouh al-Abbadi said what was once considered a distant threat is now taking practical shape, warning of gradual displacement pressures that could push Palestinians toward Jordan.

Security analysts in Amman fear not only military escalation but also a “soft transfer”, whereby deteriorating conditions in the West Bank could force a steady exodus. Retired Major-General Mamoun Abu Nowar termed Israel’s actions an “undeclared war”, suggesting Jordan may have to consider declaring the Jordan Valley a closed military zone if displacement intensifies.

Jordan signed peace with Israel under the Israel-Jordan peace treaty, also known as the Wadi Araba Treaty. However, some political voices in Amman argue that the current trajectory of Israeli policy undermines the spirit of that agreement.

Amid rising concern, Jordan has reinstated compulsory military service after a 35-year hiatus, citing complex regional conditions. Analysts say the kingdom now faces one of its most delicate strategic moments since 1967, balancing internal stability, diplomatic ties and mounting regional uncertainty.