Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
New Delhi, Jan 23: With Bangladesh heading into crucial elections in February, Indian intelligence agencies have warned of a sharp escalation in anti-India rhetoric and orchestrated violence in the run-up to the polls. According to intercepted communications, the unrest expected in the coming weeks is not random but carefully planned.
Security officials say the narrative targeting India is being aggressively pushed by Jamaat-e-Islami, allegedly with backing from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). While the ISI’s motives are strategic, Jamaat leaders are believed to be leveraging anti-India sentiment as an electoral tool to mobilise voters and consolidate support.
New Delhi is closely monitoring the evolving situation and is expected to recalibrate its diplomatic approach after the elections conclude.
Intelligence inputs describe Bangladesh’s current environment as volatile, with violence very much a possibility. An Intelligence Bureau official cautioned that if Jamaat senses a decline in its electoral prospects, the scale of unrest could intensify significantly. The ISI, officials say, sees a Jamaat-led government as advantageous due to the greater leverage it would offer.
There are also concerns that if the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) gains momentum, Jamaat cadres could attempt to disrupt the electoral process through widespread agitation and violence. Anticipating such risks, India has already withdrawn families and dependents of its officials stationed in Bangladesh, citing serious security threats.
The warnings come amid a recent spate of violent protests in Bangladesh, during which Indian diplomatic missions have been targeted. Intelligence reports indicate that Jamaat-linked groups are spreading claims that India was responsible for the killing of student leader Osman Hadi, while also accusing New Delhi of meddling in Bangladesh’s internal affairs by sheltering former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Officials believe these narratives will intensify as polling day approaches, with the clear aim of provoking unrest and destabilising the country.
From India’s security perspective, the period ahead is being described as particularly sensitive. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said intelligence agencies have detected the presence of senior commanders from the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and other militant outfits inside Bangladesh.
According to intelligence sources, these militant leaders have been positioned in Bangladesh at a calculated moment. While senior commanders are overseeing planning, their cadres are expected to attempt infiltration into India’s northeastern states to carry out terror activities, with the objective of keeping Indian security forces under sustained pressure.
Officials further warned of a multi-layered strategy allegedly being planned by the ISI. This includes amplifying anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh, targeting minority communities, and increasing cross-border infiltration into regions such as the Northeast and West Bengal.
The situation, officials admit, is complex and fraught with challenges. A Jamaat victory could make diplomatic and security management far more difficult, especially given the involvement of external players like China and Pakistan, both of whom are keen to limit India’s influence in Bangladesh.
Sources claim that Beijing and Islamabad would prefer a Jamaat-led dispensation, with China in particular backing the elevation of Muhammad Yunus as President after the elections. Yunus is seen as strategically important by both countries, having reportedly made several concessions during his tenure as head of the interim caretaker administration. Intelligence officials allege that an understanding is already in place to install Yunus as President should Jamaat emerge victorious.