Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
New Delhi, Oct 17: India’s just-concluded Southwest Monsoon season delivered above-normal rainfall, clocking in at 108% of the long-period average (LPA) — marking the second such occurrence in the last decade. Experts attribute the intensifying monsoon pattern to the accelerating impacts of climate change.
Between 2016 and 2025, India experienced five years of above-normal rains, two years of normal rainfall, and three with below-normal showers. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) defines above-normal rainfall as anything exceeding 104% of the LPA, while normal ranges from 96–104%.
Despite the overall surplus, rainfall distribution across the country remained highly uneven — a trend that's become increasingly common. Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 19 saw normal rain, 12 recorded excess, and 2 reported large excess rainfall. Only 3 subdivisions ended the season with a shortfall.
At the district level, of 727 districts, 328 received normal rainfall, 186 saw excess, 67 had large excess, while 134 recorded a deficit, and 67 faced a severe shortfall.
Meteorologists warn that extreme rainfall events are becoming the new normal. Rather than steady rains over many days, more precipitation is now falling in shorter, more intense bursts.
“Monsoon patterns are changing. Over the past decade, rainfall has leaned more toward above-normal, and this is largely due to global warming,” said K.J. Ramesh, former Director General of the IMD. “We’re seeing fewer rainy days, but much heavier downpours — the daily rainfall intensity has noticeably increased,” he added.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet Weather, echoed similar concerns. “Low-pressure systems now linger longer over land, drawing sustained moisture and leading to extreme rainfall. Cloudburst-like events have also become more frequent. These weren’t as common in the past.”
Experts agree that the role of traditional weather influencers like El Niño and La Niña appears to be waning, as the climate crisis becomes the dominant driver of India’s monsoon behavior. As variability increases, so does the challenge of managing water resources, agriculture, and disaster preparedness in the years ahead.