India retains top spot as fastest-growing major economy: UN report

By Arul Louis

United Nations, May 19 (IANS): With economic growth forecast at 6.4 per cent for this fiscal year, India will be the fastest-growing major economy, according to the UN.

"We expect Indian recovery to remain strong in the near term in the next year, and two," Hamid Rashid, the chief of the UN's Global Economic Monitoring Branch, said on Wednesday at the release of the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) mid-year report.

India's growth contrasts with the global growth rate that is forecast at 3.1 per cent this year and the next, according to the report.

Its gross domestic product (GDP), the overall indicator of the economy, is expected to go down to 6 per cent in the next fiscal year, according to the WESP.

Last fiscal year, India's economy grew by 8.8 per cent, slightly less than the January forecast of 9 per cent, the report said.

It attributed the lower growth projections for 2022-23 compared to the previous year to "higher inflationary pressures and uneven recovery of the labour market (that) will curb private consumption and investment".

Amid the global turbulence from the Ukraine conflict, the forecast for the current fiscal year has been reduced modestly by 0.3 per cent since January.

Commenting on the total global picture, Shantanu Mukherjee, the director of Economic Policy and Analysis, said: "The war in Ukraine has upended a fragile economic recovery from the (Covid) pandemic (and) global economic prospects have changed dramatically since our last forecast in January when we were expecting 4 per cent growth in 2022."

He said that the "deterioration in growth prospects is broad-based" and affects the world's largest economies including the US, the European Union, China and many developing countries.

China, which ranks as the second-fastest growing large economy, is forecast to grow by 4.5 per cent this year and 5.2 per cent next year.

The US is projected to grow by 2.6 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent the next.

Asked about India's better economic performance and prospects relative to the other major economies, Rashid attributed it to the relatively lower inflation there which does not require monetary tightening to the same degree as many of the other countries.

"Almost all the regions in the world record high inflation except for East Asia and South Asia," he said.

"So India is in that sense, is in a little better position in that they don't have to aggressively pursue monetary tightening" like some other countries, he said.

But Rashid also added a note of caution: "We can't completely discount the downside risk from external channels, so that that risk is still there."

For the South Asia region, the WESP projected growth to be 5.5 per cent this year - 0.4 per cent lower than the January forecast.

"The outlook in South Asia has deteriorated in recent months, against the backdrop of ongoing conflict in Ukraine, higher commodity prices and potential negative spillover effects from monetary tightening in the United States," the report said.

South Asian countries faced risks from higher prices and shortages of farming inputs including fertilisers, it said.

"This will probably result in weaker harvests and exert further upward pressures on food prices in the near term", according to the WESP.

It added: "Consumer price inflation in the region is expected to accelerate to 9.5 per cent in 2022, from 8.9 per cent in 2021."

The UN's projections for India are lower than those made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) last month before the full impact of the Ukraine war was beginning ot be felt.

The IMF had forecast a growth of 8.2 per cent and the WB 8 per cent.






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Comment on this article

  • Sameer, Riyadh

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Rupee ends in a new low today @ 77.73. Sensex crashed another 1400 points leading to 7 lakh crore being wiped out in domestic markets. UN ... which report are you reading?

    DisAgree [2] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ashok, Mangalore

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Congratulations. It is a moment of joy for all Indians. Enjoy guys. There is still lots of good things to do for this Government and I am sure they will succeed in doing all their intended tasks in the years to come🤞😉

    DisAgree [3] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • k b r, Mangala Uru

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Adani Ambani are the only beneficiaries...

    DisAgree [6] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • IKKU, Mangalore

    Thu, May 19 2022


    DisAgree [11] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Edward Shet, India

    Thu, May 19 2022

    UN is dreaming... probably referring to ADANI economic growth. Ground reality is different and coming days are tough for the general public.

    DisAgree [15] Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • prakash, Manipal

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Alidavara oorinalli ulidavane Raja... What is the use of macro growth when it fails to put smile on the face of the common man???...

    DisAgree [10] Agree [13] Reply Report Abuse

  • Husain, Mangalore

    Thu, May 19 2022

    The day when a normal shop keeper says that he had the better business, that is when we say the GDP is growing. Only 1% people are able to cross 1 crore mark, what about the remaining 99% people, I honestly don't support any party, so i don't want any idiotic comments about other party achievements. My point is, Government need to find ways to improve the lower class economy, then only India can change. Just by creating bank account lower class will not be rich in overnight. Education is definitely one weapon but find out other smarter ways to create chain of economy for lower class.

    DisAgree [10] Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • Cynthia, Dk

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Husain saab, one thing you business man will say happily that, they have earned well. They will say "NO" everyday....But, saying so....they continue business since ages. .Very few must have discontinued due to lockdown but majorities continued. No one is doing business in loss

    DisAgree [6] Agree [21] Reply Report Abuse

  • Raj, Mangalore

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Jai Modi ji.. And jobless ppl say we r like Sri Lanka.. hahaha.. shame..

    DisAgree [17] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rolf, Dubai

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Roko zara picture aha be be baki haya.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Alwyn, Mangalore

    Thu, May 19 2022

    INDIA GDP GROWTH However, the IMF in its annual World Economic Outlook report has lowered India's growth projection by 0.8 percentage points for 2022 from its previous forecast for the same period last year. When elections come Modi will ask all his ass kissers to publish all lies to Indians.

    DisAgree [11] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Deshbhakt, Mangalore

    Thu, May 19 2022

    6.5 is major growth ??? What was 8.5 then, that was handed over to Modi in 2014 ?? Rupees in historic low against US $, citizens committing suicide over unemployment, what kind of growth is this ?? Is the certifying official on weed ?

    DisAgree [10] Agree [19] Reply Report Abuse

  • Cynthia, Dk

    Thu, May 19 2022

    People feel, UN must have been bribed heavily for giving such report.....!! All the prices are high....Interest rates are down everywhere....whats going out from the public is more....and what comes in from the govt nothing....Results of the hard worked sweat money....

    DisAgree [3] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Moshu, Mangaluru

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Ground reality vice versa

    DisAgree [10] Agree [21] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Fudged report. However, they are silent on India's rankings on freedom of speech and restrictions on media, which is a dismal 150 out of 180 countries?

    DisAgree [15] Agree [21] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ahmed, Bangalore

    Thu, May 19 2022

    Don't understand the authenticity of such reports and surveys. Don't know how these guys calculate value or who shares them such numbers. Inside the country it's just hollow as day by day Rupee is falling against dollar.

    DisAgree [13] Agree [16] Reply Report Abuse

  • real kujuma, kodial

    Thu, May 19 2022

    i think 40% is given to the people who have published this report by the brashta janara party...

    DisAgree [28] Agree [36] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jossey Saldanha, Raheja Waterfront

    Thu, May 19 2022

    We are also top in Inflation & Unemployment ...

    DisAgree [25] Agree [41] Reply Report Abuse

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