Mangalore: Ullal By-poll Counting on June 5 - Who would Lady Luck Smile on?
by Richie Lasrado
Resident Editor
Daijiworld.com
Mangalore, Jun 4: The by-election to the Ullal assembly constituency caused by the death of MLA U T Fareed had caught the attention of the whole state for over a month. Even a small section of the national media ahas covered this crucial by-election.
The result of the by-election is expected to have a far-reaching fall-out on the state politics. Whoever wins, apparently the relationship between the coalition partners in the state is not going to be the same.
J Balakrishna Shetty of the CPIM, U T Khader of Congress, Abubakkar Natekal of JD(S) and Chandrashekhar Uchil of BJP
In the fray are U T Khader (son of the late MLA Fareed) of Congress, Chandrashekhar Uchil of the BJP, Abubakkar Natekal of the JD(S), J Balakrishna Shetty of CPI(M) and Bharat Raj Shetty, an independent.
Although it is a pentagonal fight, it is commonly believed to be a straight contest between Congress and the BJP. Khader of Congress has a good record of grassroots-level contact with the people. While his father was indisposed for a long time, Khader took upon himself the onus of taking care of the constituency, to the point of being accused of being a de-facto MLA by rivals.
Chandrashekhar Uchil has the cadre-based support from the BJP and its outfits. He had lost to Fareed the last time around. Although much water has flown under the Netravati bridge in Ullal since 2004, he is said to have continued his contact with the voters ever since. Jayaram Shetty, the sole BJP MLA elected from Ullal so far, failed to secure a party ticket last time and had resigned in protest only to join the JDS(S) a few days later.
As a strategic move, he was put in charge of the JD(S) district office in Mangalore. The Muslim supporters of JD(S) were a bit cross over this move. Having failed to cut much ice with the JD(S) colleagues, Shetty has since joined the BJP again and was seen campaigning for Uchil during the past days.
Balakrishna Shetty of CPI(M) has his loyal vote bank of the working class. The party has fielded its candidate only to assert its presence. But what surprised everyone is the fielding of a candidate by JD(S). Abubakkar Natekal, a local man said to be popular among the people, has created worries in the Congress camp in that he might split the Muslim vote.
But the whole JD(S) machinery of JD(S) was active in the constituency, including chief minister Kumaraswamy during the campaign. Given the importance the by-poll, the CM even stayed back beyond the election time in a guest house near Ganjimutt on the northern outskirts of the city, thus escaping the radar of the Election Commission.
An exit poll conducted by our correspondents has brought out some interesting tidbits. Some BJP workers felt that two women might have spoilt the party candidate's prospects in Ullal.
One is Jayalakshmi, the nurse in the news at the state level, who had got emotionally involved with BJP legislator Renukacharya. This episode has tarnished the party image so much just before the Ullal by-poll that it could certainly have affected the voting here, said a party functionary on condition of anonymity.
Secondly it was the Shobha Karandlaje factor. Shobha, an MLC hailing from the southeastern part of the district, was to be made a state minister during the last two expansions of the state ministry. This was because she is believed to be close to deputy CM Yediyurappa. On both occasions, other party leaders had vetoed the move.
It was she who given the charge of campaigning in Ullal, which idea was did not gel well with the party leaders nor with the cadre. Many workers felt that her involvement might have put off many voters, say insiders.
Votes lost
Our survey showed that hundreds of voters could not vote because the holding of voter identity card was compulsory. Many of those who had been issued voter IDs but either did not bring them along or had lost them, were turned back. Such persons who brought alternative identity document were not recognized.
Besides, a large chunk of male voters, mainly from the Muslim and Christian communities are working abroad, predominantly in the Middle East, who could have influenced the pattern of voting. Their absence could have a bearing on the election result.
Our candidatewise survey reveals the following facts:
U T Khader (Congress): There is a lot of good opinion about his efforts in bringing together different communities during October 2006 communal riots. But people have a lot of things to complain about like the problems of sea erosion, drinking water, water-logging during rains and others. Every year the state government has been spending huge sums on sea erosion. Many people wanted to know where the money had gone and why a permanent solution is not being sought instead of makeshift patch-up work being undertaken every year. Is it to fill some contractors' coffers? Very pertinent question, indeed.
Chandrashekhar Uchil: The BJP has earned a lot of displeasure after the district was affected by the communal riots in October 2006. A lot of its partymen are angry because many of its workers who got involved in the riots are still running around with court cases while key figures who provoked all that in the first place like former Suratkal MLA Kumble Sundar Rao had all cases filed against him withdrawn by the coalition government with the help of the majority of BJP MLAs in the coastal belt.
Abubakkar Natekal has the reputation of being a clean man, but many voters feel that he would only help a BJP win by splitting the Muslim votes. Congress publicists have gone around town tomtomming that it was a JD(S) ploy only to divide Muslim and do a favour to BJP by ensuring its easy win.
But at the same time, the BJP camp is wary that the election took place on a Saturday, which followed the weekly Muslim prayers on Friday. A prominent BJP leader expressed the apprehension to Daijiworld correspondent that the Friday's teaching could sway the votes against the BJP. In spite of Natekal's presence in the fray, it is also likely that all the Muslims would cut across the party lines and vote en masse in favour of either Khader or Natekal.
Besides, the Muslim population, which has a large presence in Ullal, cannot easily forget the atrocities in Ullal in 2006 and also the anti-Muslim pogrom in Gujarat in 2002.
Hence, if Natekal scores a surprise, upset win, it could rewrite the history of Ullal constituency. On the other hand, the candidature of J Balakrishna Shetty of CPI(M) is not expected to much influence the result of the election. Similarly, Bharat Raj Shetty, already having experience of having been elected to a local body, reportedly had come to the returning officer to withdraw his nomination, but could not reach in time.
The BJP workers are worried that Bharat Raj would only eat into the Hindu vote bank, as much as Balakrishna Shetty would also do.
The final scenario
In the final count, one of the three scenarios are likely:
1. If U T Khader of Congress wins, it would be reaffirmation of the traditional faith of the voters in Congress. It will prove to the coalition government in the state that this party is still a force to be reckoned with in coastal Karnataka.
2. If the BJP wins, it will mean a complete sweep (except Moodbidri in DK and Brahmavar in Udupit) for the BJP, besides having elected two Lok Sabha members from Mangalore and Udupi.
3. If JD(S) wins, it will be a tactical triumph for the party, while also proving to the BJP that the former cannot be taken for granted. It will have an upper hand vis-a-vis BJP in the coalition politics.
As already mentioned, CPI(M) and independent's win is out of the question.
The electronic voting machines which have registered the voters' choice are lying in safe cutody under armed guard in the Karnataka Polytechnic, Kadri Hills, Mangalore.
Since EVMs awere used in the polls, the number of invalid votes will be much less and also the counting will get through fast.
Commencing at 8-00 am on Tuesday, the result is expected to be announced between 10 and 10-00 am, said official sources.
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