Daijiworld Media Network – Mangaluru

Mangaluru, May 22: The southwest monsoon is set to enter Karnataka through the coastal region this week, with May 23 likely to mark its early arrival. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) attributes this advancement primarily to a cyclone that has already intensified the monsoon winds. Additionally, a low-pressure area over the Arabian Sea and the weakening of a powerful cyclone in the Bay of Bengal have created favourable conditions for early rainfall, which is expected to continue across various parts of the state until the end of the month.

Traditionally, it has been difficult to precisely predict the onset of the monsoon each year. Even when the IMD fixes a date, the monsoon typically arrives a day or two earlier or later. However, this year, scientists at IMD are confident that the monsoon will make landfall along the Karnataka coast on May 23, gradually advancing into the state thereafter.

The last time the monsoon arrived unusually early in the state was in 2009. Now, after 16 years, it is expected to hit the coast around May 23, nearly a week ahead of its usual schedule. According to IMD scientists, the drop in air pressure over the Arabian Sea and the weakening cyclone in the Bay of Bengal have triggered stronger monsoon winds, paving the way for its early onset.

“An early monsoon can bring both positive and negative effects. On the positive side, early rains create a favourable environment for agricultural activities. However, we must be cautious about the intensity and distribution of rainfall, as unseasonal downpours can sometimes lead to flooding,” noted IMD scientist Selvamani.

Weather analyst Saishekhar pointed out that while the early arrival of the monsoon is a notable development, rainfall intensity might slightly decline during the first week of June. However, it is expected to gain momentum again by mid-June. He also mentioned that the powerful cyclone in the Bay of Bengal has now completely dissipated, further smoothing the path for the monsoon’s entry.

In recent years, the monsoon has shown varying patterns in its onset over Karnataka. In 2019, it arrived on June 8, two days later than the forecasted date of June 6. The following year, 2020, saw its arrival between June 1 and 5. In 2021, the monsoon reached the region on June 3, slightly later than the expected May 31. The year 2022 witnessed a delayed arrival on June 29, compared to the forecast of June 27. In 2023, the monsoon entered on June 8, a few days after the predicted June 4. Last year, in 2024, it arrived on May 31, earlier than the anticipated June 6. This year, 2025, the monsoon is expected to arrive on May 27, marking one of the earliest entries in recent history.

This year's early monsoon is being closely watched by meteorologists, farmers, and state authorities alike, with preparations already underway to manage its impact effectively.