By Girish Linganna
Apr 19: India, the world's most populous country, is set to hold elections for its lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha, from April 19 to June 1. This 543-member chamber is crucial as it decides the party or coalition that will nominate the prime minister and form the government. During this 44-day voting period, nearly 970 million (97 Crores) people are eligible to vote, a record number. To facilitate this, over 1 million (10 Lakhs) polling stations will be set up across the country, including in its most remote areas.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a highly popular global leader, is anticipated to lead his Bharatiya Janata Party to a third straight term in office.
Gzero Media, a respected media outlet based in the USA, has shared insights from discussions with various analysts.
What are the main concerns for voters in the current election?
The main issues concerning voters include inflation, notably rising food prices, and unemployment, particularly among young people. Over one-third (33.33%) of Indians feel their situation has worsened since the pandemic lockdowns, and about two-thirds (66.67%) find it more difficult to secure a job. While religious and political issues are also considered, economic concerns are more pressing for voters.
Despite economic worries, a significant 75% of Indians approve of Modi's leadership. He is highly regarded for his implementation of specific welfare programs, improvements to national infrastructure, and elevating India's stature on the world stage. Additionally, Modi is praised for advancing the BJP's religious-political goals, including the construction of a major temple for the Hindu god Ram and the removal of Jammu and Kashmir's special autonomous status (article 370), a predominantly Muslim region.
How has Prime Minister Modi's leadership impacted press and political freedoms in India, and what is the general perception of the average Indian voter regarding these concerns?
Under Prime Minister Modi's leadership, there have been concerns regarding a decline in press and political freedoms. The opposition parties have accused the prime minister of using government investigative agencies to target opposition leaders, thereby restricting their ability to participate fully in elections. Critics argue that the government's actions have undermined India's secular constitution and its inclusive values by favoring the Hindu majority population. While Prime Minister Modi's approach to civil liberties, which encompass the fundamental rights and freedoms possessed by individuals, may not differ significantly from that of previous prime ministers who also enjoyed a parliamentary majority, there are genuine reasons regarding a potential erosion of India's democratic principles.However, these concerns seem to be primarily limited to a small urban elite, as the average Indian voter appears less troubled.
How has the Indian National Congress and its coalition partners navigated the challenges of leadership, alternative vision, and coalition-building in their efforts to counter Prime Minister Modi and the BJP?
After the 2014 elections that brought Modi to power, India's main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, has struggled due to a lack of clear leadership and an inability to create a persuasive alternative vision that appeals to voters. Recently, the party has shifted its focus towards addressing social and economic justice issues, but it remains to be seen how successful this strategy will be in winning support from voters.
In July of last year, the Indian National Congress and 25 smaller parties joined forces to create a broad coalition called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, also known as INDIA. The aim was to combine their voting strengths and present a more formidable opposition to Modi and the BJP. Unfortunately, the alliance has struggled to unite, and certain regional parties have switched sides to join the BJP's alliance instead.Furthermore, despite reaching agreements on sharing seats in certain states, important regional parties have chosen to independently contest in their strongholds, undermining the purpose of the alliance. In terms of public opinion polls, the Congress and its coalition partners are significantly behind the BJP. Their objective in the upcoming elections is not to secure a victory, but rather to safeguard their local influence and prevent Modi from obtaining a larger majority.
What are Prime Minister Modi's goals for the upcoming parliamentary elections and his plans for legislative reforms and infrastructure improvements in India?
Modi is aiming to increase his parliamentary seats from 303 to 400 in the upcoming elections. Modi wants a clear mandate to make important legislative changes that are necessary for improving economic growth, even if they may be controversial or challenging to established interests.He plans to streamline the tax system and push forward reforms in areas such as land, labor, agriculture, education, health, and electricity, which all need state support. A new government under Modi would also keep improving infrastructure like roads, railways, and airports.
Modi aims to replace India's religion-based civil laws on marriage and other matters with a single uniform civil code. This process has already started at the state level.
What are some potential challenges the BJP may face in finding a successor for Modi and maintaining their voter base?
It's uncertain if Modi's next five-year term will be his final one, considering his age of 73. His goals include establishing India as a middle-income country, enhancing its global standing, and addressing what the BJP perceives as biases against the Hindu population. He aims to leave a lasting impact and a positive legacy.
It appears evident that the BJP will encounter a challenge in finding a suitable successor for Modi when he decides to step down. According to polls, one out of three BJP voters supports the party primarily because of Modi, rather than the party itself. As a result, the party may prefer Modi to contest the next elections in 2029 before relinquishing his position. Although Amit Shah, the home minister, is Modi's favored choice for succession, he could potentially face competition from Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, and possibly from Himanta Biswa Sarma, the chief minister of Assam.
(The author Girish Linganna of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach out to him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)