Daijiworld Media Network - Washington

Washington, Dec 11: American lawmakers received stark briefings in Washington on China’s fast-advancing nuclear and missile programmes, with experts warning that Beijing’s expansion — coupled with growing reliance on artificial intelligence in military command systems — could reshape the strategic landscape across the Indo-Pacific and beyond, affecting regional powers including India.

Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, former Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea said China is now “on track to field as many operational strategic nuclear weapons as the United States by 2035, if not earlier,” describing the pace of growth as “alarming.” He emphasised that China’s ambitions extend far beyond intercontinental systems, noting that nearly its entire missile arsenal — from intermediate-range ballistic missiles to cruise missiles — is now dual-capable. According to him, Beijing is pursuing at least parity with Washington, but “quite possibly intends to surpass” it.

Senators also focused on how AI is transforming nuclear decision-making. Senator Dave McCormick highlighted AI’s expanding use in surveillance, threat detection, and command-and-control processes, acknowledging that such technologies could bring both stabilising and destabilising outcomes. Billingslea warned that China’s shift toward a launch-on-warning posture, when paired with AI-enabled decision tools, risks creating a “hair-trigger environment” prone to dangerous miscalculations, especially if systems are not firmly under human control.

Former undersecretary of State Rose Gottemoeller noted that Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping had recently agreed that humans must remain central to nuclear command decisions — a small yet meaningful step, she said, though one that will require deep technical and diplomatic follow-through. She stressed that China has refused consistent bilateral nuclear dialogue even as it accelerates modernisation, though planned meetings between Xi Jinping and former President Trump in 2026 could offer rare openings for engagement.

Witnesses and senators said that China’s nuclear trajectory — combined with rapid advances in AI, space, and cyber warfare — will have profound effects across the Indo-Pacific. Although India was not mentioned directly, analysts argue that China’s dramatically expanding arsenal and new high-technology systems inevitably influence strategic dynamics from the Himalayas to the Western Pacific, particularly as Beijing builds capabilities targeted at both continental and maritime fronts.

Lawmakers also examined China’s growing collaboration with Russia and North Korea. Billingslea described emerging Russia–China nuclear cooperation as particularly troubling, including assistance that may help Beijing acquire additional fissile material. Such cooperation, senators warned, could amplify China’s power in ways that reverberate across Asia.

China now maintains the world’s largest collection of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, many with ranges directly relevant to South Asia and the Indian Ocean region. Its rapid expansion of missile silos, hypersonic glide vehicle tests, and work on exotic systems such as fractional orbital bombardment highlight the scale of its ambitions, placing Beijing at the centre of a new era of strategic competition.

The United States has repeatedly argued that China’s refusal to engage transparently on its nuclear programme conflicts with its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which obliges nuclear-armed states to pursue meaningful arms-control negotiations.

For India — which maintains a declared no-first-use policy outside the NPT structure — China’s sweeping nuclear, missile, and AI-driven military expansion reinforces the Indo-Pacific’s status as the core arena of the emerging global nuclear order.