Daijiworld Media Network – New Delhi
New Delhi, Nov 16: Gold prices are likely to swing sharply in the coming week as global investors turn their focus to a crucial set of US economic indicators, including the monthly jobs report, minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting, and a much-anticipated address by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Analysts say these developments will heavily influence expectations around a possible December rate cut, setting the tone for bullion movements.
Pranav Mer, Vice President, Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services, said the yellow metal may remain on a bumpy path. “Volatility is expected to remain high, but prices may find some support. All eyes will be on the US data releases, which will offer clues about the health of the American economy and the Fed’s rate outlook,” he noted.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December registered a weekly rise of Rs 2,494 (2.06%), supported by a softer dollar, concerns over the ongoing 43-day US government shutdown, and expanding liquidity from the Federal Reserve.
However, traders rushed to book profits on Friday, dragging prices down by Rs 3,190 (2.52%) to close at Rs 1,23,561 per 10 grams.
Mer said the decline came amid hawkish comments from several Fed officials, which reduced the probability of a December rate cut to nearly 40%.
Globally, Comex gold ended the week with gains of USD 84.4 (2.10%), before tumbling USD 100.3 (2.39%) on Friday to settle at USD 4,094.2 an ounce.
Riya Singh, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency at Emkay Global, said renewed ETF inflows and weaker US data had supported gold earlier in the week. ETFs added 114,345 ounces in the last session, taking total purchases this year to 14 million ounces— a rise of 17%.
“Gold extended its momentum on the back of weak jobs data, a fragile fiscal outlook and a softening dollar. If bullish trends persist, the metal may test USD 4,300–4,385 per ounce,” she said.
According to Prathamesh Mallya, DVP – Research at Angel One, the prolonged US government shutdown has triggered a “data blackout”, adding to volatility.
“Markets expect fresh economic data to reflect a slowdown, giving the Fed room for a December rate cut. Until then, uncertainty will keep gold on edge,” he said.
Silver recorded an impressive jump, outperforming gold by a wide margin. MCX December silver futures surged 5.61% (Rs 8,290), rising over 12% in just four sessions after it was added to the US critical minerals list.
But Friday saw a steep correction, with prices falling Rs 6,452 (3.97%) to settle at Rs 1,56,018 per kg.
On Comex, silver rose USD 2.5 (5.3%) during the week but ended Friday down USD 2.4 (4.67%) at USD 50.68 an ounce.
Mer added that silver may trade sideways in the near term, with resistance seen around Rs 1,70,500 per kg.
Gold and silver markets are now expected to move in tandem with US economic cues, as global investors wait for clarity on whether the Federal Reserve will indeed shift toward easing in December.