Covid-19 will end in mid-Sept in India, say Health Min officials


By Sfoorti Mishra

New Delhi, June 6 (IANS): When will the coronavirus pandemic end in India? There is no definite answer yet, but senior officials of the Health Ministry predict that the pandemic in India may go in mid-September this year.

According to Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health), Directorate General of Health Services of the Ministry of Health and Family welfare, the pandemic in India will be over in mid-September.

In his article published in Epidemiology International Journal, Kumar, along with co-author and Deputy Assistant Director General (Leprosy) of Directorate General of Health Services, Health Ministry, Rupali Roy, have predicted that the pandemic would extinguish in India in mid-September.

Their prediction is based on Bailey's model where Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR) is considered for reaching a conclusion.

Speaking to IANS, Dr Kumar said, "There is a well-known model called Bailey's Model. It is based on Relative Removal Rate which means how many cases are entering the pool and how many are going out of the pool. When the number of infected is equal to the number of removed patients, the coefficient will reach 100% threshold, then this pandemic will be over."

In this model, the removal rate is calculated which is the percentage of removed persons in the infected population. Further, a regression analysis has been done to show the linear relationship between the total infection rate and the total recovery rate.

"This model is applicable on any infectious disease. Whatever you do, you will be reaching 100 per cent one day. The relative removal rate means all those who have got infection will be either cured or dead. when we did the study on May 19, it was 42% but now it is around 50 per cent and in the middle of september, it will be 100 percent," said Kumar.

According to this mathematical calculation, taking the rate to higher and higher level is reflection of moving forward in the right direction and success of control measures being taken. The linear regression analysis has been used in this study and it is showing that the linear line is reaching 100 in the middle of September, 2020.

"So it may be interpreted that at that point of time, the number of the infected will be equal to the number of removed patients, and that's why the coefficient will reach 100% threshold," said the study.

"This is a very good model to support analysis and interpretation of State and District data (whenever the number of cases is high) and it will also help in relevant decision-making in control activities of COVID 19 pandemic," said the study.

"This will further help the government to take long-term disease prevention and intervention programs," it said.

However Kumar said all the mathematical models are not absolute and it depends upon the quality of data available.

"All states have different policies in reporting the number of cases. Some are reporting only severe cases, while some are reporting both severe and mild cases. A few states conduct less tests, thus report less cases. Therefore it is very important to report correct data for more accurate results," said Kumar.

Talking about the implementation of lockdown in the country, Kumar said the lockdown could have yielded even better results.

"We could not achieve what we could have. However the idea of lockdown was very good, but due to various reasons, it was not so effective. Lockdown is more of an administrative decision, but the real measure needs to be taken at community level," Kumar told IANS. "Otherwise, we can not get benefit of it, he added.

"If you allow transmission to occur and no measures are taken at community level, then it will be very difficult to control the outbreak," Kumar said.

When asked what percentage of the population will get the infection in India, Kumar said the study does not predict the number of cases in the country. "No one can predict how much the population will get affected -- it depends upon so many things such as, from now on, how people are going to maintain distancing and how public health measures will be taken in future.

"It also depends upon how different governments are going to act," Kumar said, adding it is very much possible to prevent so many corona cases from occurring in the country.

"There should be uniformity in applying public health measures at the community level throughout the country. My model does not suggest the number of cases. I have only predicted when this will be over. The prediction depends upon the surveillance system and quality of data."

 

  

Comment on this article

  • Annoy mus, Muscat

    Mon, Jun 8 2020

    I guess they will handover the corona virus to Ajaysingh Bisht
    he will rename as rajasee taaj keetanu RTK
    So no more Corona

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • Veer, Nagpur

    Sun, Jun 7 2020

    It's just a ramdom predictions without any basis. Without a curable vaccine there is no saying when the pandemic will go away on its own.

    DisAgree Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Pinto, MANGALORE

    Sun, Jun 7 2020

    The officials r doing nothing much related to covid 19 but only concentrating on press conference... It's the corona warriors who are working hard to treat and screen as well... I will not take this mid September... It will spread and it might last a year and more... Still many people get angry when we ask them not to bring their children out of home in public places, people get angry when we ask them to wear a mask, n many others exchange masks just to get entry to a phc or bus stand... With this attitude September is a dream which will never come true ... There is severe shortage of health care personnel in the government sector... I strongly believe that the government should recruite health care personnels so that better care is ensured and we are atleast provided sick leaves and a week off

    DisAgree Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sahil, Mangaluru

    Sat, Jun 6 2020

    Can we survive till sep 2020...without vacination?

    DisAgree Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Indian, Sharjah

    Sat, Jun 6 2020

    The same party members said earlier that India is a land of gau mata, so no need to worry about corona virus. Then our PM said taali, thaali and diya will eradicate corona. Now the numbers are going up heavily, obviously due to some wrong decisions. So deadline of September, to ensure no questions for another 3 months.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [22] Reply Report Abuse

  • Appu Bajjody, Mangalore

    Sat, Jun 6 2020

    Are they Astrologers?

    DisAgree [1] Agree [20] Reply Report Abuse

  • GURKA, Mangaluru

    Sat, Jun 6 2020

    Sitting in air-conditioned rooms and not responding to the poor public plights on the road without any precautionary measurements they taken to their places like herds of animals ( forget the social distancing for that matter ). Now you are predicting that it will end up by SEP no its not true which may continue another one year because of our gross miscalculations and unscientific decisions made by the current governance !!

    DisAgree [1] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sunil, Dubai

    Sat, Jun 6 2020

    If u r BJP supporter, Corona will disappear by mid September
    If u r Congress supporter, India will see maximum number of Corona cases, as the curve will peak by mid September.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [20] Reply Report Abuse

  • Mr Kamath, Mangalore

    Sat, Jun 6 2020

    Why do we have to talk about Bjp and congress now like seriously this information is given by health office not by modi or raga or Bjp congress. Let's appreciate what health care workers are doing instead of criticism

    DisAgree [17] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • Mak, oman

    Sat, Jun 6 2020

    Agree with you Mr.Kamath , Hoping for the best for the country

    DisAgree [1] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse


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