Daijiworld Media Network – New Delhi

New Delhi, Jul 18: As India and the US move into the final phase of crucial trade negotiations, exporters across key sectors are already grappling with uncertainty, stalled orders, and delayed expansion plans.

From engineering and plastics to pharmaceuticals, industry leaders are reporting a sharp rise in volatility due to Washington’s delay in announcing clear tariff structures. The fifth round of trade talks is currently underway in Washington, with expectations of a possible mini deal around the August 1 deadline.

Engineering exporters have seen a spike in advance shipments. Pankaj Chadha, Chairman of the Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC), said, “There was a serious amount of frontloading happening. July was on track to surpass June, both record months.”

He estimated an 18% year-on-year growth in shipments but cautioned that this could reverse sharply. “We foresee a dip in August and September, and the real hit will come in Q1 of 2026,” he said, adding that exporters are growing wary of long-term plans, citing uncertainty around former US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. “Trump can’t be trusted on trade,” he remarked.

The plastics sector echoed similar concerns. Despite exports to the US reaching $2.7 billion, volatility has set in. Plexconcil Executive Director Sribash Dasmohapatra said, “Orders were held back in June and July due to uncertainty. We expected clarity in early July. It never came. Everything remained in the air.” In May, the sector clocked only 2% growth, far below last year’s pace. However, Dasmohapatra maintained optimism for the long term, citing ongoing free trade negotiations and market diversification.

Pharmaceutical exports to the US, valued at $10.5 billion last year, are showing mixed trends. Namit Joshi of Pharmexcil revealed that while heavy volumes were pushed in March, exports fell 7.2% in April year-on-year, before rebounding 13.3% in May. Still, fresh orders are slowing. “Even a 10% tariff would mean an $83 million hit for India,” he said, warning the US too would struggle to rebuild supply chains.

Meanwhile, India’s competitors are also in the spotlight. The US recently cut tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19% after direct negotiations. Starting August 1, goods from Thailand and Cambodia will attract 36% tariffs, while Bangladeshi products face a 35% duty.

Commerce Ministry officials, as reported earlier by NDTV Profit, are closely monitoring the tariff differentials and frontloaded shipments. “We’re in wait-and-watch mode,” an official said, noting that the real picture will emerge post-August 1, when the US is expected to finalise its tariff plans.

With the final phase of discussions ongoing, exporters hope for greater clarity to stabilise the outlook and reignite momentum across key sectors.