Cradle of Civilization - At Crossroads Again!

January 19, 2026

My earliest memory on Iran was based on a reading on how Nadir Shah the emperor of Persia, inventively had snatched the Kohinoor diamond from the Mughal emperor, Mohammed Shah Rangila. Nadir Shah, who had descended on India in 1739 A.D. not only looted the Mughal Capital for 57 days, but also took away the jewels, gold, more diamonds and also the peacock throne as his war trophy. The throne itself was estimated to have been built at an original cost of Rs one crore (twice the cost of constructing the Taj Mahal) in 1635 A.D. The total value of Nadir’s loot that season is estimated to be around 16 billion USD in today’s value. And as he was rushing back to his capital via the Punjab, a few caravans of his troupe were looted and this loot was more than enough for the bandits of that day to set up a dynasty in the future in Punjab. Some of the loot items from this raid later appeared on the Maharaja’s of the Patiala dynasty.

Iran, then known as Persia, was always a bitter enemy for the Mughals. The previous Mughal emperors from the times of Akbar till Aurangzeb had kept them at bay and had built reinforcements at the Afghan border. It was the weakness of the successive Mughal rulers that prompted Nadir Shah to invade India then. Today Iran is back in the news for a different reason. The memories of most of us who were born after 1980, is Iran being a staunch believer in its might and also expressing itself in defiant tone to western world. For some of the readers who were born in the 1950 & 60’s and those who had taken the early bet to explore opportunities in the Middle East, Iran was a different nation then.

From the early 1900’s, Iran was ruled by the Pahlavi dynasty, under the Shahs before the Islamic revolution of 1979 took over. Under the Shahs Iran was more open to the western world. The new found oil wealth led to massive western oriented modernization but under an authoritative rule. Women then had more rights and were involved in public life; education was given impetus and everything looked good. It was what Dubai looks like today, the feel and the vibes. With the oil wealth rotating within an elite bunch and with the SAVAK (the secret Police force of the regime) controlling descent in its own brutal way, the Shah regime began to face some opposition. Iran was then progressing on the western world’s model but its power structure remained traditionally autocratic. The SAVAK continued its oppression to suppress dissent and the ministers around the Shah remained the loyal Yes Men!

In 1971, the Shah went on to celebrate the birth of Iran and celebrate its 2,500th anniversary as a monarchy. A palace was built in a desert and the celebrations went for days. Monarchs, Head of State & Dictators from the rest of the World joined the bash. All were present except the citizens of Iran. When someone enjoys freedom of the western world but does not experience the inclusiveness from the Governing body, in this case, an authoritative ruler living in the glory of a bygone era, resentment has to begin to spill on to the streets.

What we are witnessing now, is what Iran witnessed in the late 1970s as well. Protesters were on the streets and the SAVAK were on a rampage then, to silence the demonstrations. The traders on the street who catered to the massive trade in the region were not happy with the Shah’s adoption of supermarkets, chain markets, grocery stores and other western outfits which threatened their livelihood. After all, Iran was the hub for Bazaars. The charm was on the streets of Iran and not in the air-conditioned super markets. A similar situation has panned out in Iran in 2025. It is the traders from the local Bazaars who joined the protests. They could not afford to buy the electronic imports. The reason being, the Iranian Rial had crashed by 84% against the USD in 2025 alone.

If the Shah’s misadventure of building a luxurious, custom-built tent city near the ancient ruins of Persepolis, was the trigger for dissent then, today it is probably the ambitious project of 2018 in building the Iran mall. The project displayed an opulent excess that made little sense amid the stagnation in the rest of the Iranian economy. Twice the size of the Pentagon, the mall is a city within a city with its own IMAX movie theatre, a library, swimming pools and sports complexes, along with indoor gardens, a car showroom and a hall of mirrors modelled on a 16th century imperial Persian palace. How different is this from the Shah’s desert Palace at the ruins of Persepolis.

This same project, Iran Mall, is in the eye of the storm as it was funded by Ayandeh Bank, which was saddled with bad loans & losses of 5 billion USD. This Bank was nationalised last year and more money was printed to keep it going. Needless to mention, printing more currency leads to hyperinflation. The latest inflation rate is close to 45%, wherein the food inflation is at a staggering 72%. Today, with the collapse of the Ayandeh Bank, more Banks are in a similar mode. This has exposed Iran’s financial failure and its recent vulnerability in the Arab-Israel war has made matters worse for the administration. Iran’s non refusal to co-operate has invited sanctions from the US, further isolating the economy.

Today the common man on the streets of Iran is not able to afford food. The Rial is crashing by the hour, inflation is shooting up, wages are not rising & the traders don’t know how to reset the prices. It is not about the political freedom that is pulling it down, it is the affordability of essentials that is driving the Iranians on to the streets. When roti, makaan aur kapda are beyond your reach, it is bound to create dissent.

In 1979, Iran made a choice to end the Monarchy and embraced Theocracy. It put an end to an era of Monarchs who had ruled Iran over 2,500 years but not by the same dynasty. In the prehistoric times it was ruled by the powerful Achaemenids, Parthians, and Sasanians. The most famous ruler of the Achaemenids being Cyrus the Great. The Qajar dynasty ruled between 1796 to 1925 A.D. Facing pressure from Russia & Britain, constitutional Monarchy was introduced in 1906. The first uprising began here. In 1925, the Pahlavi dynasty was born out of a military coup. The last Monarch, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, was the last of this clan and Monarchs of Iran.

In terms of oil reserves, Iran is the fourth largest and in natural gas, second largest. It also possesses abundant deposits of zinc, lead, copper, and iron making it the top 15 in the list. The cornerstone of Iran actually lies in its strategic location. It is the gateway to South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. It controls the Strait of Hormuz, which controls around 25% of the World’s oil supply. India & South Korea receive 60% of its oil through this narrow strait, for Japan it is 75%. What is more interesting is that 90% of Iran's oil lands up on the shores of China. It does ring a bell when you get to know that the largest importer of Venezuela’s oil is also China.

I’m not favoring the Monarchy nor endorsing Theocracy; all I’m saying is when one’s livelihood is destroyed it is natural to protest. After all, human beings are mammals. They rear & raise their offsprings, provide for them and also handover a legacy. I know some who build the retirement nest for the next generation. The very animal instinct of providing & caring for our families that is within us is what is panning out on the streets of Iran at the moment. It is all about Roti, Makaan aur Kapda! 

 

 

 

By David Pinto Prabhu
David Pinto Prabhu, Partner at Fisdom Private Wealth, is on a mission to simplify the clutter surrounding the dynamic nature of investments. He has over 20 years of experience in the field of investments. After starting his career with ING Investment Management (2004), he moved to J P Morgan Asset Management (2008), and was heading South India for its institutional business. He holds a PGDM degree from St Joseph’s College of Business Administration, Bengaluru, and a B Com degree from St Aloysius College, Mangaluru, where he is currently based. David can be contacted on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/david-pinto-29037a33 and Email: davidcasmir@gmail.com.
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