Feb 23, 2011
Absolute power corrupts absolutely - John Emerich Edward
After being hit very severely by the recent financial crises, economic recovery is under way in the Middle East and North African region.
Though they have managed to be on their foot by salvaging whatever they could, the crises is not fully solved yet. The domestic bank lending, which provided the engine of growth between 2004 and 2008, remains anaemic. Similarly, international banks have cut their new exposure to the region by more than half. The real estate and stock markets are yet to be on track. Though the recovery would still take a long time, business is back in many sectors.
But just when there was possibility of heaving a sigh of relief, we have yet another crises looming large - the political crises, or, simply put, Monarchy vs Democracy.
The occupation of Iraq by America saw the end of Saddam Hussein, who ruled Iraq for a decade. But such rule by a monarch is usual in neighbouring countries, where monarchs have been heads of countries for decades, looking after the region's political and economic development. Some of the monarchs like King Abdullah bin Abdul‘aziz of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah II of Jordan, Emir Sabah al-Ahmad of Kuwait, Sultan Qaboos-bin-Said of Oman and Muammar Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi of Yemen have ruled these oil rich countries for a number of years. The countries in North African region have not seen people-oriented development for years together under these regimes.
The population here, driven by poverty and unemployment, has resorted to a final attempt to overthrow these monarchs or despots. The revolution that threw away Mubarak of Egypt is influencing unprecedented upsurges among neighbouring countries. The ripple of the above crises is being felt in Syria, Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. It would be no great surprise if the same unrest were to spread to Saudi and Oman too in the days to come.
So the question arises, why this fight between monarchy and democracy? The main reason is believed to be a pro-democratic movement. The victory for democratic movement in Egypt has been seen as a great success. There are other reasons for this unrest - like migrants, mostly from North African countries, demanding equal rights and opportunities, clash between Shia and Sunni Muslims, localities deprived of job against foreign immigrants etc.
But there are other serious reasons also - countries like America influencing unrest here to restore more pro-America government and thus to gain easy control over oil. Such reasons cannot be brushed aside. The fight against global terrorism is concentrated now in the Gulf countries, if America gains internal control over these countries around Iran it can control this region without much trouble. The growing Al-Qaeda presence in this region is another worry for the USA. Such tricks have been used by America and other countries in the past to topple governments and restore more amicable allies.
The Gulf region’s entire economy depends on its revenue from oil. The majority of the oil is extracted by the American and European countries and revenue goes to the state treasury. There can be no denying that considerable amount of development has taken place, some of these countries have become developed and many of them are on their way. But the development is not really reaching the citizens. The wealth of the country is amassed by a few royal families, who do not bother much about the progress of the country at large. These families have been patronised by oil giants to keep alive their vested interests in the region. By these they have been able to influence oil prices worldwide.
If in case many of the present monarchs fall and democratic governments take over the region, there would be serious repercussions on the world economy in general and India in particular. This does not mean these countries should continue the same way, but if they fall in the wrong hands it might be something to worry about.
First of all, if the governments are formed by radical groups there would be increase in terrorist activities causing threat to global security. Secondly, oil exports would seriously affect the global economy. Thirdly, millions of Indian workers presently employed in the Gulf countries, would be deported and business establishments run by Indian firms would certainly incur huge losses. Finally, if such disturbances do occur it would lead to a total chaos in the African continent and the Gulf region. It seems, already ripples of this unrest have spread across the ocean as protests have been reported in China by the pro-democratic activists demanding similar propositions.
One thing is for sure, ‘uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.’
Rohan Sequeira - archives: