Lockdown ineffective, India may see 25 crore coronavirus cases in next 3 months: Report

New Delhi, Mar 27 (IANS): In what could spell real trouble for the country in the next three months, a new report from prestigious Johns Hopkins University and the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) has predicted that 21-day lockdown may be ineffective to stop the COVID-19 peak arriving in April-May-June – infecting over 12 crore Indians in an optimistic (low) scenario.

In a High scenario (trajectory with current lockdowns but insufficient physical distancing or compliance), the total number of cases (asymptomatic, hospitalized and symptomatic) can even touch a massive figure of 25 crore.

In the most likely (Medium) scenario with moderate to full compliance but no change in virulence or temperature/humidity sensitivity, the numbers of total cases can swell up to 18 crore.

The optimistic (low) scenario constitutes decreased virulence and temperature/humidity sensitivity.

To reach these numbers, Johns Hopkins and CDDEP -- a public health research organisation -- used IndiaSIM, a well-validated agent-based model of the Indian population which has been published widely over many years and has been used for government decision-making.

According to the report, hospitalised cases can reach up to 25 lakh people in the High scenario, 17-18 lakh people in Medium scenario and 13 lakh people in Low scenario.

"Ventilator demand will be 1 million. Current availability in India is estimated to be between 30,000 and 50,000 ventilators," said the joint report.

"Mortality in healthcare workers could further increase deaths in the general population. Healthcare workers need personal protective equipment (masks and gowns) to protect themselves. Without them they get sick further straining the capacity of the healthcare system to respond," the report warned.

The number of coronavirus cases climbed to 649 in India on Thursday and the death toll hit 13, with one death reported each from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh, according to the Health Ministry.

But March is the month when peak is yet to even begin, according to the report.

According to the report, delays in testing are seriously reducing the ability of the population to protect itself.

"This is the most important way in which we can contain the epidemic. An increase in the official number of detected cases in the short term could encourage the population to take distancing more seriously and will reduce panic compared to a big spike later," the findings showed.

"Border closures at this stage have little to no impact and add further economic disruption and panic. While international transmission was important in the first stage, domestic transmission is now far more relevant," it warned.

A national lockdown, said the report, is not productive and could cause serious economic damage, increase hunger and reduce the population resilience for handling the infection peak.

"Some states may see transmission increase only after another 2 weeks and lockdowns should be optimized for when they could maximize the effect on the epidemic but minimize economic damage," said Johns Hopkins-CDDEP report.

State-level lockdowns in the most affected states could change the trajectory of the epidemic and should commence immediately. Any delay allows for more secondary cases to emerge.

Lockdowns should be guided by testing and serological survey data and should be planned on a rolling basis, the report mentioned, adding that preparedness for case load should be the highest priority at this time.

"Temperature and humidity increases should help us in reducing case load. Although the evidence is limited, it is plausible," the report mentioned.

Evidence from China indicates that higher temperature and humidity are likely to lower the transmission rates but it is unclear "how this will translate to the India context".

India "should be prepared for multiple peaks in the model and should be prepared for more cases and deaths later in the year".

In India, initial infections likely first arrived in early February, according to the report.

People who will show symptoms next week are already infected and incubating the virus. Some of these will transmit before they are symptomatic. A large percentage of cases are mild, but for older individuals, the mortality rate is strikingly higher.

"Children are less likely to be infected and also less likely to be hospitalized than adults. Illness is less likely to be severe in children than in adults," the report noted.



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Comment on this article

  • Nancy, Mangalore

    Sun, Mar 29 2020

    .but There's only one god 👼. Only he can save us. Let's not hate each other and other countriesspread love ❤.Amen

    DisAgree [1] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Advocate Rajasekaran, Tirupur

    Sat, Mar 28 2020

    This report is totally a false one. No need to panic. Keep social Distancing and proceed ur daily chores.

    Advocate Rajasekaran M.B.A., M. L.,

    DisAgree [2] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Nawaz, Udupi/ Kuwait

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    I will tell only one thing. It was very easy if the lockdown and scanning each overseas passenger was done at the very beginning before the virus could even spread across our Country. Our country was in advantage that we knew the problem before its arrival. And when Rahul Gandhi requested for that on February 12 itself, people and the our ruling netas made fun of him as usual. Health Minister even criticized him by saying that he is demoralizing our countrymen. Now finally the government had to announce lockdown very lately and so abruptly that it seems to be ineffective owing to not being ready to manage the consequences of lockdown.
    Italy I think has 4 doctors per 1000 citizens and advanced health care facilities and less population. India has 0.5. Doctors per 1000 I think. And everyone knows our health care standards.
    Accept that we are in trouble. Pray for each and everyone. Everything in the hands of the Almighty. He has the control over everything. We just have to ask forgiveness sincerely for our misdeeds.

    DisAgree [16] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • shreyas rai, Pune

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Really Rahul Gandhi Said???? Really... Heights of politics.

    DisAgree [5] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Nawaz, Udupi/ Kuwait

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Look at his Tweet on 12 february. At the end of his tweet, he said: "TIMELY ACTION IS CRITICAL". I hope you understand the gravity of his statement. Quoting the truth is politics for you; if it goes against your masters. But saying lies is always a Masterstroke if it is from others.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Deshbhakht, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    "Children are less likely to be infected and also less likely to be hospitalized than adults. Illness is less likely to be severe in children than in adults," the report noted."

    How to believe this report ? A 10 month old baby of Sajipanadu is found with the virus, hospitalized and is recovering. If children are LESS likely to be infected and LESS likely to be hospitalized than adults, why it is absolutely opposite with the child that visited Kerala obviously its parents were along too ?

    We will get to read a lot of bulshit in coming days.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Parvez, Bangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    It is true that the locked down would extend to 3 months, currently our financial condition is really not good, this 21 days no work no money. If it extends till 3 months what will happen😢😔

    DisAgree [3] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Chinese have said that the virus originated in US in Nov 2019 .US does not declare what is uncomfortable to them. They did not declare that they used Dioxin a very toxic chemical in the Vietnam war ,other countries found it, only then they agreed, in Iraq we all know that US had said there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq we all know what they found was nothing. It blames Syria for chemical weapons, but as we all know Dioxin was used by US, also the most deadly weapon of mass destruction was used by US on a tiny country like Japan.

    DisAgree [21] Agree [13] Reply Report Abuse

  • David Pais, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    u r born in hate 2 america & Israel. there is no medicine 4 it. da 1nly medicine is love 2wards humanity.

    DisAgree [9] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Eminef, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Monty Dotor, Mangalore, They say person with little knowledge of anything is dangerous because he will spread his stupid conspiracies without any proof. For your information no country releases virus on another country without having an antidote . This is because they fear that virus might affect their own people without an antidote.
    It is better if you keep you conspiracy theories to your self and focus on keeping your self and others safe.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Ajit M, Mumbai

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Testing testing testing. The only way to control the virus. Blind leadership leading a blind people
    Test kits cost only 700 on India mart. Why govt not making test free for public?

    DisAgree [12] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Edward, mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Dont spread fake news.
    No kits are avalaible on the net. They are all fake ones trying to dupe you.

    DisAgree [4] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • Li Wenliang, china

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    China lied and people died.Please boycott Chinese product.

    DisAgree [8] Agree [41] Reply Report Abuse

  • Shammi, Karnataka

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    We all Indians shoukd preach this in our mind, lets not be over confident and not ignorant of this situation or any future pandemics. Be humble, for Gid loves humility. He hates boasting, for the same reason he and his close aide Iblees(satan) is departed.

    I saw some Indians saying on Facebook before this corona came to india, that we are Indians we eat spicy things, so this corona or its father will not harm us. I am stunned, how can a person say this, isnt he scared of God?Being patriotic is different and then being ghamandi is toxic.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [26] Reply Report Abuse

  • Alwyn, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Instead of wasting time on such reports they should be finding an antidote for this . India has so many researchers they should find one for India instead of waiting for other countries. Govt should give full support to this

    DisAgree [1] Agree [28] Reply Report Abuse

  • Valerian DSouza, Udupi/Mumbai

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Let anyone say anything.
    What our country has done is most appropriate in the given situation.
    As per the law of multiplication, if a person infect 2 persons, see the impact in 21 days:

    1 x 2
    2 x 4
    4 x 8
    8 x 16
    16 x 32
    32 x 64
    64 x 128
    128 x 256
    256 x 512
    512 x 1024
    1024 x 2048
    2048 x 4096
    4096 x 8192
    8192 x 16384
    16384 x 32768
    32768 x 65536
    65536 x 131072
    131072 x 262144
    262144 x 524288
    524288 x 1048576
    1097152 x 2097152

    DisAgree [2] Agree [20] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rajesh, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    That is how became a hugely populated country. 1*2, etc. Hold the calculator and calculate our population in another hundred years. It seems like corona is a correction for human foolishhness.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Stevan, Udupi

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Someone is trying to sell ventilator by creating panic among people, we don't believe these rubbish reports from Western media , we have faith in our doctors and nurses. Lockdown will definitely wipe out Corona from India in 21 days

    DisAgree [20] Agree [36] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jossey Saldanha, Mumbai

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    We have full faith in our Leader ...

    DisAgree [16] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • Anticorrupt, Mangalore/Kuwait

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Your leader will soon go into hiding if this war lasts longer than Mahabharat.

    DisAgree [28] Agree [36] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sahil, Mangaluru

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Where they will hide in this situation everything lock dow. No aircraft. Nirav. Malya luckiest. Don't worry will pull them out.

    DisAgree [12] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • mohan, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Government should have given two days to make stock of nessasary materials ..... so people wouldn't gone out fir materials .. this total government failure .....neither people have enough food materials at home more stores have enough stock.....so people are struggling to get daily food materials.....
    Failure of government in decision making..

    DisAgree [25] Agree [26] Reply Report Abuse

  • Chandra, Surathkal

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Ha ha ha....

    DisAgree [10] Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    US as of today has the highest mortality and if we calculate the deaths proportion to the total population,we are doing much better than the west.The moral- Papa don't preach.Actually without lockdown and only following social distancing we would have been better health wise and financially.With only social distancing without lockdown (only central a/c buildings Ac busses,ac trains shut and flights restricted) would help small amounts of virus spreading and creating immunity, while the viral load being small would not cause serious infection. Anyway Be Happy Be Healthy.

    DisAgree [10] Agree [19] Reply Report Abuse

  • Manju k, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    USA having a high mortality rate? Where are you getting this from? Italy, Spain and Iran have topped the charts other than China. The US is just starting to hit those numbers. I shudder to think what is in store next.

    As you said, let's hope we get out of this alive.


    DisAgree [7] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Vishal, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Whether this is a panic report or whether they want to spread fear among the people is not something I want to debate about. The undeniable fact is the people in our country have not taken this lockdown seriously. The PM has been appealing to remain indoors, the TV news are showing frightening cases of people suffering but the people do not appear to be concerned at all. I can understand poor labourers going out in search of food but what about the so called educated among us? If the people don't follow the instructions, the only option for the police is to come down heavily on them. And that is to be done before the virus spreads. Not after it spreads.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

  • Manju k, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    People who are squandering the report saying its misaligned and is intended to cause panic situations. you need to retrospect. these facts are based on AI models which may be accurate.

    Here is some thought: India has barely started testing for covid-19. We are only just earmarking hospitals for covid-19 patients. we are doing all this when We are already in stage -3.
    You just can't go to KMC or some other private hospital here and say you need to do an analysis. unless you show symptoms that you have covid-19, they will not test you. why? because testing needs special kits and we don't have that.

    Come out of your mindset that everyone is trying to put India down. Open your eyes and see the pathetic condition of our health system. Then you can start showing your patriotism.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [37] Reply Report Abuse

  • Alwin, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    We should not give any importance to the statements which weaken our strength and continue our efforts in confidence with a faith of victory is ours at the end

    DisAgree [8] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • Diwakara B., Kota/Kundapura

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    God save us from this wrath to come. Forgive our sins which we would have done unintentionally.

    DisAgree [4] Agree [25] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sahil, Mangaluru

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    We don't believe in Prediction report.... India blessed with several gods. Nothing will happen to India.

    DisAgree [19] Agree [26] Reply Report Abuse

  • Veerendra, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    We don't need your sarcasm here. We know how many gods you have and also pray to your god that you don't come under the wrath of this virus.

    DisAgree [24] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sahil, Mangaluru

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Oh cool lord of courageous man. God bless you.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Chiguru, Mumbai

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Gods can't help you. Your temples/mosques/churches are closed
    Have faith in doctor gods (gods in human form)
    For only they can save us!

    DisAgree [1] Agree [12] Reply Report Abuse

  • S.M. Nawaz Kukkikatte, Dubai

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Just Pray by heartily to almighty wherever you are, Ban to enter Temple/Masjid/Church that not means, not to believe almighty.

    This is practically a situation showing by God, be united and protect your self from such kind of disease
    Stay at home and Pray for the entire world

    DisAgree Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jeeth D'Souza, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    India is doing a wonderful job with the resources that are available to us.. Such stupid reports that spread chaos should be ignored...we are on the right track.... Hope we will bounce back as a nation and our country will prevail....!

    DisAgree [21] Agree [54] Reply Report Abuse

  • sk, Mangalore

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    This is not the report. This is their hope, their wish. They cannot digest the fact that India is still doing better than most of the developed nation. Nevertheless, people and Government should not let their guard down

    DisAgree [20] Agree [81] Reply Report Abuse

  • sri_elder, Karkala

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    sk very well said...
    I still believe india is out of danger

    DisAgree [11] Agree [29] Reply Report Abuse

  • KUMAR, karnataka

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    Even Trump had boasted saying US was doing good and corona virus would not hurt them!!!!

    DisAgree [7] Agree [13] Reply Report Abuse

  • Manoj, Kavoor

    Fri, Mar 27 2020

    This is a Panic report from the vested interests. They always think, Indians are vulnerable to all kinds of epidemic. If it happens, they will say, "SEE WE SAID THAT" and it doesnt happen then "Dust settles on such report and is forgotten". Indians are resilient healthwise and not like Europeans who fall like a pack of cards in times of emergencies. No matter what, lets take care of ourselves. Go out only if it is absolutely necessary. STAY HOME STAY SAFE!! Dont consider this as a Magna Carta for health from a country who themselves are struggling. Govt shld keep reafy Ventilators for any kind of emergency. Lets make this report settle with Dust in some shelf. JAI HIND.

    DisAgree [11] Agree [88] Reply Report Abuse


Title : Lockdown ineffective, India may see 25 crore coronavirus cases in next 3 months: Report


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