India's 2nd coronavirus wave more infectious, has lower fatality: Report


New Delhi, Apr 18 (IANS): The second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in India is different from the first one in September 2020 as the rate of increase in new cases is significantly higher.

The Lancet Covid-19 Commission India Task Force said in a report that the increase from 10,000 to 80,000 new cases per day from February to April took place in less than 40 days.

Last September, this journey took 83 days.

The second differentiator is that many more of the cases testing positive are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, resulting in relatively low rates of hospitalisation and mortality.

The report said it is not entirely clear if the higher proportion of asymptomatic cases are entirely due to better contact tracing (more family members, for example, being tested).

The overall Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) since the beginning of pandemic in March 2020 has been reported to be around 1.3 per cent, while the CFR among patients who have contracted the virus since the starting of 2021 is far less at 0.87 per cent.

Provisionally, it appears that CFR appears to be lower in the second wave.

Yet, India is reporting 664 deaths per day across the country. Fatality numbers lag infection rates, and are likely to rise as infections surge, the report said.

Preliminary analysis indicates that while the pandemic has spread, the geographic contours of the second wave closely mirror those of the first wave, though with a deeper penetration into tier 2, tier 3 cities.

Over the past year, there are 215 districts that have been among the top 10 per cent in terms of case infections at one point in time.

But nine districts (Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, Nashik, New Delhi, North 24 Parganas, Pune, Thane, and Solapur), have been part of the top 10 per cent throughout the year.

The second wave has also been more geographically clustered so far.

The number of districts comprising the top 50 per cent has dropped from over 40 at the time of the last peak, to less than 20 currently, indicating a much more concentrated pandemic.

In fact during the first surge over August and September 2020, the number of districts for the top 75 per cent of cases was 60-100, while it has been around 20-40 districts during this wave, the report said.

 

Vaccinate teachers on priority basis to enable school opening in July 

Recommending priority vaccination of teachers and school staff, the Covid task force has said that a safe opening for the education sector can be done by July.

The Lancet COVID-19 Commission India Task Force said in the report, "We strongly recommend that teachers and school staff are vaccinated on a priority basis."

"We recognize that in states with high rates of infections, it will not be possible to open schools immediately, especially in the context of clusters of infections in and around hostels. However, we believe that the next two months can be used to prepare the education sector for a safe opening in July 2021 for the next academic year," it added.

The Task Force has issued a separate set of recommendations for safe reopening of schools. "We strongly urge governments to consider the significant and potentially catastrophic losses in learning, especially for children from low-income families, that have already occurred due to extensive school closures, and to limit such instances as much as possible", it added.

On international travel, it recommended a mandatory 7-day institutional quarantine for all visitors arriving from other countries, with an RT-PCR test conducted on day 8, and the option of completing another week in home isolation if the test is negative. Local communities can be mobilized to ensure the effectiveness of home quarantines.

The task force recommends no restrictions on domestic travel, either within or between cities. Advisories should be issued to promote safe behaviours, and testing made available at source and destination sites. Individual states will need to determine their own protocols based on caseloads and local circumstances.

"We recognize that seasonal migration of workers from urban areas to rural areas is about to commence with the start of the harvest season. We recommend that state governments make a special effort to support migrant labours in these journeys, equipping them with masks, options for testing and vaccination where eligible, and by setting up quarantine centres in host districts to manage the spread of the virus from cities to rural areas", it added.

 

 

  

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Comment on this article

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    As far as we don't take a very holistic view towards preservation of our remaining forests and fauna, more and more such zoonotic infections will jump over & can be expected to attack mankind!

    DisAgree [2] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • Dev, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    Yeah, rapid development at the cost of environment has added more pollutants in a short time the nature has no time to remedy the damage as more & more pollutants gets added. One doctor who is triple MD & scientist had said the same last year itself. He found in Wuhan or wherever there were more deaths got reported they were the most polluted cities & the symptoms last year were showing Cyanide poisoning symptoms more people showed organ damage & rapid heart rates then last they had lungs filled with water & finally death. He had advised to treat the patients with cyanide poisoning methods. He too opines the more Round Up or Glyphosate is used in farming around those cities which might have irritated the viruses into expressing a mutant virus causing present pandemic, but it is Chinese Bioweapon with the help of Dr Fauci, Bill Gates & WHO to start a new Global Reset is evident & we can rename it as Plannedemic.

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  • Dev, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    The news or report is true this time. The more a virus becomes virulent the less will be fatalities. Coming to fatalities of more people we know are again caused by mismanagement of viral infections along with experimental administration of medicines. If patient is isolated from family members and faceless top to bottom covered attendees hover around it increases the anxiety thereby reducing their immunity and if we create panic and fear through TV media more harm will be done. According to some doctors the patients don't show lung infection and saturation of oxygen levels are showing 98 reading this time. The x-ray and Ct scans too are useless if they are asymptomatic of this nature. So don't worry be happy we have had these viral infections before but we didn't go overboard with all mania creation. Vaccines claims are marketing propaganda only not proven by any research studies but self claims only.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    Dear Monty, just a matter of "pure speculation", that "many of the deaths", in the second wave, admist all speculation on COVID-19🦠😷 are not because of MASS HYSTERIA! There have been innumerable such cases in recorded history! Please read the BMJ hypothesis on this phenomenon!

    DisAgree [2] Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    I agree.There is a lot of fear and panic- both for the 2 "Vs"virus and vaccine. Fear causes a lot of malfunction of our body defense mechanisms. So for the last one year and more I have always said " Be Happy Be Healthy".... but never underestimate your enemy...I was taught " Eternal Vigilance is the price is Safety ".

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  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    @Rudolf .Pulse oximeters cost less than Rs.2000 and the whole family can use it.They are quite reliable and have been used in operative procedures under General anaesthesia for more than 20 years. I personally would believe in PO and symptoms ( and X ray/CT scan of the chest) rather than RT PCR tests which do not prove infection ( only colonization), and miss secondary bacterial infection.For rt PCR test ordinarily one has to visit a hospital from where one might on the contrary carry home the virus... I Hope readers are not fed up with too many of my comments and replies....

    DisAgree [1] Agree [3] Reply Report Abuse

  • Cynthia, Kirem

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    No no sir, We are not. Your comments/replies enlighten and educate so many of us and help us to be more cautious and alert...Thank you so much....god bless

    DisAgree Agree [3] Report Abuse

  • Cynthia, Kirem

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    Sir, i agree with this statement of yours..."For rt PCR test ordinarily one has to visit a hospital from where one might on the contrary carry home the virus..." People are so many in those centres where social distancing was not possible. My sister from Mumbai got infected from one of these centres.

    DisAgree Agree [3] Report Abuse

  • k b r, Mangala Uru

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    false statistics is the speciality of this government....

    DisAgree [3] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Cynthia, Kirem

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    No this news is not real. In this second wave, i lost 5/6 known people within my friends circle, some parents aged 51/54/60...and some quite old. This news i cannot believe. Members of the deceased families say, this virus doesnt show any symptoms..only through oxymeter they confirmed that they had corona.... any fatality is bad. We can't take it so lightly. May all the departed souls rest in peace Amen 🙏

    DisAgree [2] Agree [13] Reply Report Abuse

  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    I fully agree with you.Though the death "rate" is low, the total number is high.We have to take the situation seriously, the best is to take a vaccine it may not prevent infection but it will definitely reduce the number of deaths.Every life is precious.In this second wave many people have died due to secondary bacterial pneumonia,apart from remdesivir and favipiravir which are of doubtful value as antivirals, doctors should not hesitate in giving an antibiotic cover to treat bacterial pneumonia,( no damage done even if there is no proof of bacteria). There are many safe antibiotics having few side effects.Our attention should not be on the virus alone, there are other opportunists waiting.... destroy them first before they destroy us.

    DisAgree Agree [8] Report Abuse

  • Cynthia, Kirem

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    Sir, i agree its totally confusing. Many say, this present variant is air borne

    DisAgree [1] Agree [2] Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    If pulse Oximeter reading is so accurate why waste money on tests which give so many false negative/positives or may be even fake?

    DisAgree Agree [5] Report Abuse

  • vivek, Hirebyle / Abu dhabi

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    It is not Low fatality Rate it is hiding data, India's covid related death termed as Pneumonia which is in real it is because of covid

    DisAgree Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rudolf Rodrigues, Mumbai

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    New variant double mutant strain; can it be accurately detected with the current available tests?

    DisAgree Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    The double mutant can be detected by the rtPCR test( there will always be false positives and negatives), the problem is some vaccines(esp.based on spike proteins - like Covisheild, Astra Zeneca, etc may or may not work effectively) as in the double mutant ( prevelant in India ) the spike protein has changed!!!

    DisAgree Agree [5] Report Abuse

  • Andrea, Mumbai

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    I dont trust the central govt, infact nobody would.

    DisAgree [5] Agree [19] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sanjay shenoy, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    Stay at home at least 14 days .stop going out for fun and joy. stop social gatherings and functions, we can control if we will. use mask and gloves and follow hand wash.

    DisAgree [4] Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • Monty Dotor, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    According to virologists the faster a virus spreads, less lethal it is. If we compare the number of deaths per unit(say per 1000 cases) ,the death rate is low . The total number of deaths appear more because more people are infected. The problem this time is more younger people are infected and many without comorbidity are dying, this is because of the "double mutant" strain. Just as we want to survive the virus to wants to survive...The good news is people can get vaccinated ( if available- shortage is the bad news), then one can still get infected but death rate will be negligible. Confusing isn't it....

    DisAgree [4] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Anil, Mangalore

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    Not true !!!!! Many are dying, maybe the vaccine is offering some protection against a severe infection.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • Shankar, Mangaluru

    Sun, Apr 18 2021

    I agree. The major change is that now children are infected and hospitalized. I read a tweet from a doctor today saying a month old baby is infected is under ventilation!

    DisAgree [1] Agree [13] Report Abuse


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