Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
New Delhi, Feb 3: Sharp reductions in global development aid, particularly by the United States and several European nations, could undo decades of gains in public health and result in 22.6 million additional deaths worldwide by 2030, according to a new study published on Tuesday in The Lancet Global Health.
The peer-reviewed research, led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) in Spain, estimates that the impact would be felt across 93 low- and middle-income countries, including India. Alarmingly, the projected death toll includes 5.4 million children under the age of five, highlighting the disproportionate burden on the most vulnerable.
The study finds that Sub-Saharan Africa would bear the brunt of the fallout, with 38 of the 93 countries analysed located in the region. In Asia, 21 countries — among them India — face heightened risk. This is followed by 12 countries each in Latin America, the Middle East, and North Africa, while 10 European nations, including Ukraine, are also expected to be affected.
“Pulling back support at this stage would erase hard-earned progress and translate directly into millions of avoidable deaths,” said Davide Rasella, coordinator of the study and an ICREA Research Professor at ISGlobal, who is also affiliated with Brazil’s Institute of Collective Health. He warned that funding decisions taken today by donor governments would have lasting and irreversible consequences for global health.
The analysis underscores the historic role of official development assistance (ODA) in improving health outcomes. Between 2002 and 2021, international aid contributed to a 39 per cent reduction in child mortality, cut HIV/AIDS deaths by 70 per cent, and led to a 56 per cent decline in deaths from malaria and nutritional deficiencies. These gains were recorded across the 93 countries studied, which together account for three-quarters of the world’s population.
However, global aid declined in 2024 for the first time in six years, with major donors such as the US, UK, France, and Germany slashing their contributions — the first such reduction in nearly three decades.
To assess the potential consequences, researchers modelled two funding scenarios for the period 2025 to 2030. Under a moderate reduction scenario, involving an average annual cut of 10.6 per cent, the world could see 9.4 million preventable deaths, including 2.5 million children under five. In a more severe scenario, based on $32 billion in cuts — or a 15.1 per cent reduction — between 2024 and 2025, the death toll could rise to over 22.6 million, with 5.4 million young children among them.
“These findings lay bare the moral cost of treating global aid as a zero-sum political choice,” said Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, president of the Rockefeller Foundation, which supported the research. He described the projections as an urgent call for governments to reconsider funding cuts and act collectively to prevent large-scale, avoidable human suffering.