Daijiworld Media Network – Geneva

Geneva, Aug 9: The World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast global merchandise trade to grow 0.9% in 2025, driven partly by frontloading of imports in the US ahead of sweeping tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump. However, the higher tariffs are expected to slow trade growth in 2026 to 1.8%, down from the earlier projection of 2.5%.

“World merchandise trade is now projected to grow 0.9% in 2025, up from the -0.2% contraction forecasted in April but down from the 2.7% estimate pre-dating the tariff increases,” the WTO said. The revision, though modest, is seen as a positive sign for India.

India’s exports remained flat at USD 35.14 billion in June due to global economic uncertainties, while the trade deficit narrowed to a four-month low of USD 18.78 billion.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that tariff uncertainty continues to dampen business confidence, investment, and supply chains. “Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment,” she said.

The WTO report noted that Asian economies will remain the largest positive driver of global merchandise trade growth in 2025, though their impact is expected to be smaller in 2026. In contrast, North America is projected to weigh negatively on trade growth in both 2025 and 2026.