Daijiworld Media Network- New Delhi
New Delhi, Jun 20: In what could be welcome news for coffee lovers across India, the price of your daily cup is likely to dip as global coffee rates take a significant fall. According to market data, both Arabica and Robusta varieties—the global benchmarks for quality and instant coffee respectively—have plunged to multi-month lows in the past seven weeks.
Arabica futures have dipped over 21%, while Robusta prices have declined by nearly 24.4%, marking the sharpest drop in more than a year. Brazil and Vietnam, which lead global production of these coffee varieties, are reporting stronger yields this year, fuelling the price correction. Brazilian consultancy Safras & Mercado recently revised its estimate for Arabica output to 40 million bags—a 4.3% jump from previous projections. Robusta output is also expected to surge by 7.8%, touching 26 million bags.
This wave of improved production is attributed largely to favourable weather conditions, reversing the impact of last year’s severe droughts, particularly in Brazil. As a result, coffee supply has outpaced demand, easing pressure on prices across global markets.
While this trend should ideally bring some respite to consumers, whether the benefits trickle down to retail levels remains uncertain. So far, despite facing inflationary pressures in past quarters, major brands have refrained from raising retail prices steeply. This suggests that any potential price cuts now may be marginal or delayed.
However, the path ahead isn't entirely smooth. The European Union’s impending deforestation regulation, mandating traceability in agricultural imports including coffee, poses a fresh challenge. Although its enforcement has been deferred to December 2025, producers are already bracing for increased compliance costs.
In addition, unforeseen weather changes in Brazil or Vietnam, geopolitical uncertainties, and disruptions in the global shipping network—such as container shortages—may pose fresh hurdles for coffee supply chains.
Despite these looming risks, Indian companies like Tata Consumer Products Ltd., CCL Products Ltd., Nestle India Ltd., Bombay Burmah Trading Corp., and Vintage Coffee are expected to gain from the current price softness. CCL Products, in its recent earnings call, indicated optimism for stronger margins and volume growth if the positive crop cycle continues. Tata Consumer, too, which earlier flagged high input costs as a drag, may now see a boost in margins with easing raw material prices.
As prices percolate down and markets await clarity on future disruptions, your morning brew might just become a little more pocket-friendly—at least for now.