Daijiworld Media Network - Washington
Washington, Nov 3: American voters head to the polls on Tuesday in crucial midterm elections that will serve as a verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump's second term, with opinion polls and nonpartisan analysts indicating that Democrats are well placed to regain control of the House of Representatives, while the battle for the Senate remains uncertain.
Nearly 10 closely contested statewide races are expected to determine control of the Senate, most of them in traditionally Republican strongholds.
Historical trends pose a challenge for Trump's Republicans, as the party of the sitting president has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War Two. Trump's approval rating is also hovering near its lowest levels, amid voter frustration over the war with Iran and rising fuel prices.
The election campaign has largely revolved around Trump, who has repeatedly urged supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot". He has held more than two dozen campaign rallies since the beginning of October, mostly in states he comfortably won in 2024.
Republicans, led by Trump, have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical, un-American and communist. Speaking in Washington on Monday, Trump described the Democratic nominees as the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history.
However, opinion polls suggest that affordability and the rising cost of living are among voters' biggest concerns. Trump's tariff policies and the decision to attack Iran in February have added to domestic economic pressures, while several Republican candidates have struggled to distance themselves from the president.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats are being contested. Democrats need to gain at least three House seats and four Senate seats to secure majorities in both chambers.
A Democratic-controlled House or Senate could launch investigations into what the party describes as self-dealing by the Trump administration and seek concessions in return for approving legislation. Control of the Senate would also give Democrats the power to block presidential appointments, including nominations to the US Supreme Court if vacancies arise.
Despite making gains in several Republican-leaning states, Democrats face a difficult path in the Senate. They must defend their existing seats while attempting to win in states that Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
The Michigan Senate contest has drawn particular attention, with progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, 42, facing Republican former US Representative Mike Rogers, 63. The race received an unexpected development on Sunday when Democrat Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost to El-Sayed in the party primary, endorsed Rogers.
The contest is also being closely watched as a test of Republican attacks on El-Sayed's identity and progressive agenda. If elected, he would become the country's first Muslim senator. He has criticised Israel and supports policies including universal healthcare.
In Alaska, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola has faced controversy following reports that her campaign helped recruit a third-party candidate sharing the name of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. Peltola has denied involvement. Trump's Justice Department has launched a criminal investigation into the allegations and filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of the election results, but a judge dismissed the lawsuit.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is attempting to win a Senate seat in a state that has remained firmly Republican for decades. His opponent, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, has received substantial financial backing, including a reported nine-figure investment from billionaire Elon Musk, who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars supporting Republican candidates.
Kansas has also emerged as a closely watched contest, with Democratic candidate and megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton holding a narrow polling lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall. The state voted for Trump by more than 16 percentage points in 2024 and has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century.
In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president. Jackson became the party's nominee after Democratic candidate Graham Platner withdrew amid allegations of misconduct, which he denied.
Other closely contested Senate races are taking place in Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and South Carolina.
The House battle is also largely concentrated in Republican-held districts. A Reuters analysis of leading election forecasters identified 47 competitive races. If other contests follow current expectations, Democrats would need to win only 13 of those 46 races to secure a majority.
Republican efforts to redraw congressional districts in several states to strengthen the party's position appear to have delivered fewer gains than the White House had anticipated.
Democrats have also raised concerns that Trump could challenge the election results if Republicans lose control of Congress. His administration has already intervened in election-related legal disputes in Alaska and California. The US Supreme Court on Monday rejected the administration's request for an emergency order in the California ballot case.
Apart from congressional contests, voters will decide 36 gubernatorial races, thousands of state legislative seats and several ballot measures covering issues such as abortion rights and taxation of billionaires.
The results are expected to shape the political landscape in Washington during the final two years of Trump's term and influence the direction of both parties ahead of the 2028 presidential election.