Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
New Delhi, Oct 24: India's wheat acreage is expected to remain broadly stable during the ongoing 2026–27 rabi season despite below-normal monsoon rainfall, raising hopes of another bumper harvest, according to a report by Mint.
The Union Agriculture Ministry has set a wheat production target of 121 million tonnes for the 2026–27 crop year, following record output of 120.7 million tonnes in the previous year. Wheat was cultivated across 33.6 million hectares in 2025–26, according to official data.
M L Jat, secretary in the Department of Agricultural Research and Education and director general of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), told Mint that irrigation facilities in major wheat-producing states were expected to limit the impact of deficient rainfall on sowing decisions.
Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Gujarat are among India's major wheat-producing states. Wheat is a key rabi crop, generally sown in October and November and harvested in March and April.
The southwest monsoon, which runs from June to September, recorded rainfall 13 per cent below normal. The north-western region experienced a deficit of 6 per cent, while central India received 3 per cent less rainfall than usual, the report said.
However, October rainfall has helped improve soil moisture conditions in parts of the north-west, including key wheat-growing areas of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana. Wheat also requires less irrigation than paddy, helping limit the impact of uneven rainfall on planting decisions.
Rainfall trends during October have varied considerably across regions. Between October 1 and 14, the north-western region received 12 mm of rainfall against the normal 13.1 mm, a deficit of 9 per cent. Central India recorded a much steeper deficit of 95 per cent, receiving just 1.9 mm against the normal 37.3 mm.
India's existing wheat stocks are expected to provide an additional cushion against possible supply pressures. Stocks in the central pool stood at 47.44 million tonnes on September 16, significantly above the buffer requirement of 27.58 million tonnes.
The surplus gives the government flexibility to meet food-security needs, supply grain through welfare schemes and manage domestic availability. However, actual market prices will also depend on demand, procurement costs and government policies.
The government has raised the minimum support price (MSP) of wheat to Rs 2,610 per quintal for the 2027–28 marketing season, compared with Rs 2,585 per quintal in the previous season.
Despite expectations of stable acreage and strong supplies, the final production outcome will depend on weather conditions, crop health and yields over the coming months.