Daijiworld Media Network - Bhubaneswar
Bhubaneswar, Oct 24: A developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into Cyclone Arnab and approach the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts on October 28, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned.
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal was expected to intensify into a deep depression on Sunday and further develop into a cyclonic storm by Monday morning. The system is forecast to move west-northwestwards and could continue to strengthen until Wednesday morning.
If the system reaches cyclonic storm intensity, it will be named Arnab, following a name proposed by Bangladesh. The IMD has not yet specified its likely peak intensity.
Following the forecast, the Odisha government has alerted districts that could be affected by the approaching system. Revenue and Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari said the government was closely monitoring the situation and had directed the districts to remain prepared for emergencies arising from heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Weather models suggest that the system could intensify into a severe cyclonic storm, with some forecasts indicating the possibility of further strengthening. However, meteorologists have cautioned that an anti-cyclone and a ridge to the north of the system could influence its movement and eventual landfall location. Some projections suggest a possible landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast, potentially between Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam, including the Kakinada region. The exact track remains uncertain.
Mohapatra said wind speeds could reach 70 to 80 kmph, with gusts up to 90 kmph, from Monday onwards. Winds are expected to strengthen gradually as the system approaches the eastern coastline.
Rainfall is likely to begin along the east coast, particularly in north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal, from Monday. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast in several areas from Tuesday, while isolated locations in north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha could receive extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 30 cm on Wednesday and Thursday.
Private weather forecaster Skymet said the system was developing over open waters under favourable environmental conditions, with weather models indicating the potential for rapid intensification. It assessed north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south coastal Odisha as particularly vulnerable to a direct impact based on historical storm tracks.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has also indicated favourable conditions for further development, citing low vertical wind shear of 5 to 10 knots, warm sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius and moderate upper-level outflow. Global forecasting models broadly suggest that the system will move northwestwards as it strengthens.
Authorities are continuing to monitor the system, with its eventual intensity, track and landfall location expected to become clearer over the coming days. Residents in potentially affected coastal districts have been urged to follow official weather updates and advisories.