Daijiworld Media Network - Washington

Washington, Aug 18: A regional conflict involving limited nuclear weapons use could pose a greater danger to the United States than a surprise mass nuclear attack, as miscalculation could quickly trigger a wider escalation, a senior Pentagon official has warned.

Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of War for Policy, said a large-scale nuclear strike on the United States would be deterred by the devastating consequences for any country capable of launching such an attack.

“What I would fear more is a regional war,” Colby told the 2026 United States Strategic Command Deterrence Symposium.

He warned of the possibility of a local conventional conflict in which nuclear weapons are used, potentially triggering an escalation that spreads beyond the original theatre.

Colby said decision-making time during such a crisis could be extremely limited. A military move by one side could be misinterpreted as preparations for a full-scale attack, prompting a response far beyond what was initially intended.

“That would lead very rapidly to an incredibly pressurised situation that would be almost by definition not in our interests,” he said.

The United States, Colby said, must ensure that the President has credible and rational options during a crisis. Such options should be capable of deterring an adversary without creating an uncontrollable spiral towards nuclear war.

“It’s not taking away options for the president. It’s adding credible options,” Colby said.

Colby described the modernisation of the US nuclear deterrent as “the single most important initiative for the American military”. He said Washington needs a survivable and diversified nuclear triad, secure second-strike capabilities and a deterrence strategy integrated with conventional military forces.

He said the administration was not undertaking another nuclear posture review. Instead, it was reviewing nuclear employment guidance while concentrating on implementing existing modernisation plans.

“This is so important, we know where we’re going…now it’s about execution,” he said.

Colby also pointed to China’s expanding nuclear capabilities as an unprecedented strategic challenge. Unlike during the Cold War, he said, the United States now faces two potential nuclear peers — China and Russia.

“I remain cautiously optimistic about the ability for us to maintain effective deterrence in the context of three sort of great power nuclear states,” he said, while adding, “I’m not sanguine about that.”

Colby also said engagement and respectful dialogue could help manage strategic tensions.

“If you can try to mitigate these pressures through engagement, through respectful dialogue, that’s totally consistent with being strong,” he said.

The United States maintains a nuclear triad comprising land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and strategic bombers.