Daijiworld Media Network – London

London, Jul 6: Researchers have developed and validated a self-reported risk score to identify adults aged 50 years and above who may be at an increased risk of developing oesophageal and gastric cancers, offering a potential tool for targeted screening in low- to middle-incidence settings.

The study used data from 375,280 participants aged 50 years and older enrolled in the UK Biobank to develop the screening model. Researchers analysed a range of self-reported demographic, lifestyle and medical history factors to identify individuals at higher risk of upper gastrointestinal cancers.

Using Cox regression models with LASSO penalisation, the researchers identified eight key predictors that were independently associated with the risk of oesophageal and gastric cancer. These include sex, age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index (BMI), a history of oesophagitis, use of gastric acid-suppressing medications and previous surgery involving the stomach or oesophagus.

The researchers said the model relies entirely on information that can be easily self-reported by individuals, making it practical for use in routine healthcare settings without the need for laboratory tests or specialised investigations.

The study's strengths include its large sample size and a median follow-up period of 11.7 years, providing robust long-term data for model development. The use of readily available clinical and lifestyle information also enhances its potential for widespread implementation.

However, the researchers acknowledged several limitations. They noted that some potentially important risk factors may not have been included because of limitations in the UK Biobank dataset. They also said that while LASSO regression was used to select the final predictors, other statistical methods might have identified different variables or interactions.

In addition, the model was developed using data from a UK population, and its performance in other countries or healthcare settings remains to be established through further validation.

Overall, the risk score demonstrated moderate accuracy in predicting upper gastrointestinal cancers and was able to identify a small subgroup of individuals with a projected 10-year cancer risk of at least one per cent.

The researchers said ongoing work under the RISC-GAP project will examine whether incorporating clinical findings and biomarkers can further improve the model's predictive ability. They added that any future adoption of the tool for population screening would depend on evidence demonstrating improved survival outcomes and cost-effectiveness.