National / World

Modi may turn populist, shun major reforms till polls: Report


Mumbai, Aug 13 (PTI): The Modi government is unlikely to undertake any major reform in the remainder of its term but may channel its energy to publicise achievements and emerge more people-friendly with lower taxes, says a report.

"Rather than look to conquer new ground in the run-up to the 2019 hustings, we expect Prime Minister Narendra Modi to focus on cementing the success of his reforms and infrastructure projects already started. More focus will be on administrative initiatives and not new legislative reforms on the macroeconomic front," Barclays India chief economist Siddhartha Sanyal said in a weekend note.

"Notwithstanding his aggressive reforms since 2014, we believe Modi will be selective in picking his battles and deploying his political capital ahead of the 2019 polls. A likely absence of near-term benefits will likely remain a constraining factor against launching new reforms in the run- up to the polls.

"Closer to the polls, Modi might consider deploying his political capital more to boost BJP's 'nationalist' credentials rather than its 'reformist' image", argues Sanyal.

If at all he does indeed accelerate reforms over the next 18 months, those will purely be based on the success or failure of such initiatives over the medium term, he notes.

At best, he may attempt to complete the aborted reforms like land and labour laws amendment, but will not push it hard, given the limited immediate benefits likely from them.

"Therefore, ahead of the 2019 hustings, we expect Modi's policy initiatives to evolve around three 'C's -- combating corruption; completing existing policy priorities (resolving NPAs, fine-tuning GST, completing infra projects etc; and communication to highlight how his various initiatives are helping the common man, especially in rural areas," Saynal says.

A communication blitzkrieg may focus on the benefits of the government policies for the common man (low inflation, anti-corruption efforts, direct benefit transfer, stronger infrastructure like electricity, roads, irrigation etc).

Having achieved some success on the anti-graft drive (over Rs 4,313 crore black money have been unearthed since May 2014), Modi may play up this again, says the report.

"Strong anti-corruption rhetoric is likely to stay at the core of Modi's policy framework, especially given the rich political dividend the BJP has enjoyed from the banknotes ban. There is a possibility of stricter political funding rules, a crackdown on benami properties and progress towards greater disclosure of overseas assets of citizens," Sanyal says.

"Modi will keep the rhetoric against corruption, including stricter norms of funding political parties, high- pitched ahead of the polls," says the report.

On the macro front, he is unlikely to attempt any new ambitious legislative reforms until H1 of 2019 and is likely to focus on improving the delivery of government services and ease of business, he says.

Comment on this article

  • mahesh, Mangalore

    Mon, Aug 14 2017

    Silulars can comment what they wish.
    Fact is Modi is getting relected in 2019.

    its also fact that siddu will come back next year unless pappu manages to loose it.
    keep pappu away and siddu will win karnataka again.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • SMR, Karkala

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    BJP and PM Modi has nothing claim other than rebranding popular UPA schemes and blaming the party for 70 years past for India's tragedy.

    If someone as Modi how many bogeys for his dream 'bullet train' project is ready to roll, we might get some 'Whatsapp' industry edited photoshop picture of Japan.
    Forget about 'Bullet train' please do take Modi's adopted village which resembles pile of garbage.

    Only achievement BJP can take credit is 'pink revolution' of exporting beef by lynching Indians for basic food choice.
    They can also take some credit for setting up BJP's 'social media' cottage and 'Whatsapp' industry and providing some employment for tweeting fake news for money.
    Instead of giving sermons on 'mann ki baat' , he should start reading the 2014 BJP manifesto which promised to the nation.
    PM Modi BJP has failed in all front. For any government 3 years is ample of time to show some results.
    Figure manipulation can't serve the nation. Truth always prevails. Facts never die down.
    Jai Hind

    DisAgree [5] Agree [11] Reply Report Abuse

  • KRPrabhu, Mangalore /Bangalore

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    You can't discard Neem quoted urea technology a new innovation .

    DisAgree [3] Agree [1] Reply Report Abuse

  • SMR, Karkala

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    KRPrabhu, Mangalore /Bangalore
    Sir,When you write a comment it is important to do fact check. Neem coated urea is not new invention but just rebranding of earlier order.
    Neem-coated urea was included in the Fertiliser (Control) Order of 1985 in 2004, according to government-owned National Fertilizers’ website, and was notified on June 2, 2008, according to this government communication.
    It was finally included in the 1985 Order through an amendment on February 6, 2017.
    Jai Hind
    Rathan, Mangalore
    Sir, Please come out of illusion of PM Modi's India. The nation when got indepence even for food supply we are US depended. When former PM Shastri took the charge under 'Jai Jawaan,jai kisaan' the nation became self sustained. Perhaps you may not have born India first tested nuclear weapon in 1974.India's first satellite, the Aryabhata, was launched by the Soviet Union on 19 April 1975 from Kapustin Yar using a Cosmos-3M launch vehicle. This was followed by the Rohini series of experimental satellites which were built and launched indigenously.Who came up with the idea of IITs and IIMs?
    Who tried to bring scientists from the Manhattan project back to India appealing to their patriotism?
    Who funded and encouraged organizations like TIFR, ISRO, INCSR and allowed the new age scientists like APJ to take root?
    Who envisioned unification of rivers for the very first time? (flawed, but still)
    Who ran from pillar to post to build Indian steel manufacturing infrastructure?
    Who initiated the start for Department of Science and Technology?
    Who set up the 110 odd engineering colleges with government aid?
    Who wanted the Indian agricultural policy post second 5 year plan as a scientific one?
    Kindly read the history of India instead getting addicted to BJP's 'Whatsapp' industry of fake news.
    Jai Hind

    DisAgree [1] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rathan, Mangalore

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    If three years r enough how the khangress ppl did not improve India for last so many years after Independence?
    Then why so many farmers committing divide in Niddramayya govt
    after 4 years of rule ?

    DisAgree [10] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Vally, Mlore/ Dubai

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    What new thing he is having in his mind or in hand and they know how to fool Indian people and its very easy so he is not worried about next election.
    Before 2014 election he and his party mens were talking many thing but after election things gone worst.
    For Example : Our soldiers dyeing every day on boarder and our boarders are not safe what he is doing for them? zero right.
    Till today he enjoyed UPA govt. projects not his projects he know to trouble people of India not to give them Ache din.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • N.M, Mangalore

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    Failed demonetization which has been dubbed as the biggest scam on independent India, negative growth across industrial, export, agricultural sectors and a failed GST are some examples of his so called 'Reforms'.

    After failing miserably with such stupid ideas, he is now shying away from taking any major decisions.

    Apart from BHASHANS, BJP has NO vision, NO plan and NO road map for India's economic and social progress.

    DisAgree [5] Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • Santan Mascarenhas, Kinnigoli/Mumbai

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    BJP promised 15 lakhs in 2014, elect them, in 2019, you may get that amount plus interest. It is the part of your benefit stashed away by the black money people. It is the deferred compensation.

    DisAgree [7] Agree [24] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jossey Saldanha, Mumbai

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    2019 we will surely get our Rs. 15 Lacks ...

    DisAgree [5] Agree [22] Reply Report Abuse

  • KRPrabhu, Mangalore /Bangalore

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    15 lakhs only for those voted for BJP and Modiji..not for you nd like..

    DisAgree [11] Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • Unknown, Mangalore

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    jossey
    U earn yourself and get satisfaction. There no joy from getting free 15laks than earning yourself.

    DisAgree [9] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Declan, Mumbai

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    Fekugiri is working wonders so people don't need any populist measures. Voters are so 'intelligent' especially the youth they will anyway vote for him whether they understand 56 inches' bhashans or not. Nowadays universities have ceased to become institutions of learning. People and the youth get their education from the paid media. Hence Feku and Daku will continue to rule as long as they remain 'intelligent'.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [20] Reply Report Abuse

  • mahesh, Mangalore

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    A similar strategy is being adopted by siddu nowadays...
    different religion for lingayats, seperate state flag, focussing on kannada...these are all poitical gimmicks...but gimmicks that are needed to win elections.

    siddu seems to be unkowingly following modi..

    DisAgree [18] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • Clifford Fernandes, Toronto

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    RBI paid last year 66 thousand crores as dividend and this year 30 thousand, that news is kept in low profile. Looks like the bullet train project will be delayed. People getting houses by 2022 will remain a dream. Yesterday, Yogi said owing to dirty surroundings in Gorakhpur, epidemics has started, that means whatever the money collected as swatch Bharath tax has gone in drain. Mann ki baat chodo, kaam ki baat deko.

    DisAgree [2] Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rajesh, Mangalore

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    Any major reforms will bring upheavels in the immediate aftermath. transition period will be a period of confusion. however in the long run sytems will adpat and the upheavels will smoothen out. Demonetisation & GST are good exmples. I am sure crppling the cash economy by increasing the banking transactions will bring transparency and broad base the tax payers. allready around 92 lakh tax payers have increased. Since in democracy. one has to do some balancing act because people will fall for immediate benefits rather than building a foundation. it would be better to play to the gallery when elections are nearing. otherwise it will give oppertunity to the opposition.

    DisAgree [5] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • HENRY MISQUITH, Bahrain

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    63 innocent children died in five days, yet there is no clarification from BJP Govt about the cause of these deaths.

    DisAgree [1] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Prasanna, Bajpe/Mangalore

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    Bar Bar Modi Sarkar....Jai Ho Modiji

    DisAgree [10] Agree [2] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jossey Saldanha, Mumbai

    Sun, Aug 13 2017

    He still has Demonetization & GST Money ...

    DisAgree [2] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

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