Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi

New Delhi, Apr 23: India’s economy is well-positioned to maintain robust growth even in the face of elevated crude oil prices, according to industry body Assocham.

The chamber stated that the country has built significant resilience over the past 25 years, enabling it to absorb repeated oil price shocks without major disruptions to its growth momentum. Its analysis indicates that India could sustain growth above 7 percent even if crude prices remain in the $90–100 per barrel range.

Historical data from 2000-01 to 2025-26 shows that strong economic performance has often coincided with moderate to high oil prices. For example, India recorded a growth rate of 7.6 percent in 2022-23 when crude averaged $93 per barrel, followed by 7.2 percent growth in 2023-24 with prices around $82 per barrel.

Nirmal Kumar Minda, President of Assocham, attributed this resilience to the strength of domestic consumption, which continues to drive manufacturing activity, employment generation, and income growth—creating a self-reinforcing cycle of demand and supply.

He also highlighted the role of sustained government investment in infrastructure, particularly through increased capital expenditure, in shielding the economy from global uncertainties.

The report further pointed out that even during the 2011–14 period, when crude oil prices stayed above $100 per barrel, India’s GDP growth remained stable between 5.2 percent and 6.4 percent. By contrast, the sharp contraction of -5.78 percent in 2020-21 occurred despite relatively low oil prices, largely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking ahead, projections remain positive. The Reserve Bank of India has estimated GDP growth at around 6.9 percent for 2026-27, while Assocham expects the figure to surpass 7 percent, supported by strong domestic demand, stable exports, and rising investment levels.