Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
New Delhi, May 27: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has lifted spirits with its latest Southwest Monsoon forecast, projecting 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall between June and September—signifying a generally wetter-than-usual season (±4% error margin).
This encouraging outlook bodes well for India’s predominantly rainfed agriculture. Central and South Peninsular regions, pivotal for the Kharif crop cycle, are tipped to receive above-normal precipitation, while Northwest India should see rainfall close to par. A slight shortfall may occur in the Northeast, warranting vigilance for local crop and ecosystem impacts.
The Monsoon Core Zone—which blankets much of India’s key farming belt—is also set for above-average showers, laying a strong foundation for sowing and early crop growth. In fact, June itself is expected to start on a wet note nationwide, aside from some pockets in southern peninsula, Northwest, and Northeast India that might record below-average rains. These early downpours are crucial for timely planting and for recharging groundwater reserves.
Temperature forecasts for June present a mixed picture. Daytime highs will generally remain normal or cooler across most states, though parts of Northwest and Northeast India could experience warmer spells. Nighttime lows are expected to be higher than usual over much of the country, except in central and adjoining southern regions where minimums should hover around—or below—seasonal norms. Notably, the incidence of heatwave days is predicted to be below average in Northwest, Central, and East India, easing early-summer heat stress.
Behind this balanced weather outlook are neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, with a slight chance of a weak negative IOD emerging mid-season. Meteorologists will keep a close watch, as even modest shifts can alter monsoon patterns.
A closer look at regional forecasts reveals that 34 of 36 meteorological subdivisions should see above-normal rainfall, including major states such as Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. Only Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya may fall below average, with a handful of northeastern and Himalayan zones hovering near normal.
While abundant rains can power crop yields, replenish reservoirs, and bolster rural incomes, they also elevate the risk of flooding, waterlogging, and landslides in vulnerable areas. Public health agencies must prepare for heightened waterborne disease threats, and disaster-response teams should stay ready for rapid flood or landslide relief.
The IMD will continue issuing extended-range and short- to medium-term forecasts via its website, providing critical guidance for farmers, policymakers, and emergency planners. With proactive preparation, the 2025 monsoon season could prove a boon for India’s food security and water resources, even as communities remain alert to its inherent challenges.