Daijiworld Media Network - New Delhi
New Delhi, Aug 27: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) remains well placed to retain power if the Lok Sabha elections were held on August 27, but its popularity appears to be showing signs of erosion, according to the latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey.
The August 2026 edition of the biannual survey projects 326 seats for the NDA, down from the 352 seats predicted in the January 2026 edition. Despite the decline, the alliance remains comfortably above the 272-seat majority mark.
The latest projection is significantly below Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "400 paar" target during the 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign. However, the findings suggest that voter support for the NDA remains largely intact as the ruling alliance faces emerging challenges, including growing concerns among Gen Z voters ahead of the 2029 elections.
The Congress-led INDIA bloc is projected to win 185 seats, only marginally higher than the 182 seats predicted in the January survey. The projection is substantially below the 234 seats the opposition alliance won in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The Mood of the Nation survey has been conducted twice a year by the India Today Group for nearly two decades. The August 2026 edition was conducted by CVoter, with 25,184 people directly surveyed between July 1 and August 25. Another 91,795 interviews conducted over the previous six months as part of CVoter's regular tracking exercise were also used to compile the findings.
A party-wise analysis, however, indicates a more significant shift in voter support.
The BJP is projected to win 261 seats if elections were held today, compared with the 287 seats predicted by the January 2026 survey. The latest figure is below the 272-seat majority mark but remains considerably higher than the 240 seats won by the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The decline indicates some erosion in support for the BJP, which has faced criticism from Gen Z voters over alleged examination paper leaks and irregularities in the education system.
Student protests at Delhi's Jantar Mantar in July eventually led to the resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan as Union Education Minister, marking a rare political setback for the Modi government.
Meanwhile, the survey points to a significant improvement in the Congress' electoral prospects, with the party projected to win 106 seats. This is a sharp increase from the 80 seats projected in the January edition and also higher than the 97 seats predicted in the August 2025 survey.
The figures indicate that while the NDA continues to hold a clear advantage over the opposition, the BJP may face growing challenges in rebuilding support among younger voters as political parties prepare for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.