Week ahead should continue to be volatile, with positive bias


By Arun Kejriwal

Mumbai, Oct 13: The week past began on a positive note and gained on two of the four trading days, while losing on the remaining two. BSESENSEX was up 453.77 points, or 1.20 per cent, to close at 38,127.08 points, while NIFTY gained 130.30 points or 1.17 per cent to close at 11,305.05 points.

The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.93 per cent, 0.94 per cent and 0.83 per cent, respectively. The BSEMIDCAP gained 0.49 per cent while BSESMALLCAP lost 0.29 per cent.

The Dow Jones gained 241.87 points or 0.91 per cent to close at 26,815.59 points. The Indian Rupee lost a tad and was down 14 paisa, or 0.20 per cent, at Rs 71.02.

Shares of IRCTC would be listed on Monday, October 14. This would be the fourth railway company to be listed on the bourses. Shares of the company were issued at Rs 320, and the issue of 2,016 crore shares was oversubscribed 111 times. The premium being quoted on the share is about Rs 240 indicating a 72 per cent gain from the issue price.

To welcome the new entrant from the Railway Ministry, the other three railway stocks had a great outing on Friday and did well for the week. Ircon International gained 3.94 per cent, Rites gained 8.64 per cent while RVNL was up 11.96 per cent. One could be sure that the Railway Minister would have plenty to talk about when the share gets listed and begins trading on Monday.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have certainly slowed down the quantum of sales that they had been pressing at the bourses, if last week is to be taken as any indicator. While this cannot be taken as a trend, in case it is true, then the markets have turned for sure. The mood, however, continues to be bearish on Dalal Street and traders continue to be trigger happy and more than willing to short to make a quick buck. Fortunately, the banking, financial sewrvices and insurance (BFSI) sector has been providing plenty of such opportunities in recent times.

It began with DHFL, then Yes Bank, India Bulls Group companies and then HDIL. This is not to mention many other companies which have been hammered in the market. The interesting thing to be noted is that the various departments of government machinery have become efficient in dealing with fraud cases after the likes of Mallya and Modi-Choksi. In the case of HDIL, they were able to attach innumerable properties, aircraft and luxury cars and jewellery within days of the PMC Bank fraud coming to light.

The US-China trade war saw some positive signs of thawing, with the US suspending a tariff hike on $350 billion of Chinese imports and China agreeing to buy $40-50 billion of US farm produce. While this is the first piece of good news in many months on this front, this is certainly not the end of the issue. There are many more milestones to be achieved but at least there is some sanity. Global markets would cheer this news in the coming week.

An Iranian oil tanker was attacked by missiles purportedly fired by Saudi Arabia. There is no confirmation yet on this front, but it led to crude prices rising by 2 per cent. Turkey continues its war with Syria. While these are ongoing geopolitical risks, the US-China deal could dominate markets in the week ahead.

The week ahead should continue to trade with volatility but a positive bias. There would be sharp two-sided movements but one should use dips to add to long positions.

  

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