Daijiworld Media Network - Bengaluru

Bengaluru, Mar 26: With just over a month remaining for the crucial Karnataka Assembly elections, a pre-poll survey by C fore has revealed that the ruling Congress is set for another innings in the state. The survey predicts a comfortable majority for the Congress, with BJP coming second.

The survey reveals that the Congress is likely to win 126 seats, or 46 percent of the total votes, a positive swing of 9 percent as compared to the 2013 election result.

BJP on the other had is likely to win in about 70 seats, translating into 31 percent of the vote share, with a positive swing of about 11 percent. JD(S) is likely to get 16 percent of the votes and may win in about 27 constituencies.

The JD(S) is experiencing a negative swing of 4 percent mainly because of the exodus of its Muslim and Dalit votes to Congress, the survey shows. In Hyderabad Karnataka, Bengaluru and Old Mysore region the Congress is ahead by a huge margin.

In the coastal region which has a total of 19 seats, it is going to be tough fight between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress presently occupies 7 of the 8 Assembly constituencies in Dakshina Kannada and all the seats in Udupi except Karkala. However, as per the survey, the BJP is likely to see a 12 percent swing in its favour.

BJP is ahead in central Karnataka, that includes Yeddyurappa's stronghold Shivamogga, Davangere and Chitradurga.

C fore conducted the pre-poll survey in Karnataka between March 1 and March 25. Systematic random sampling methodology was used in selecting respondents for the survey. In all, 22,357 voters were interviewed from 154 Assembly constituencies covering all districts using a structured questionnaire. These respondents were spread across 2,368 polling booths covering 326 urban and 977 rural locations in the state. The samples represent different castes and communities in their actual proportion. The survey has a margin of error of 1 percentage point at 95 percent confidence level.

When it comes to popularity of chief ministers, Siddaramaiah was way ahead with 45 percent of the voters choosing him over BJP's Yeddyurappa, who was the choice of only 26 percent of the electorate. Only 13 percent of the voters chose JD(S) chief H D Kumaraswamy.

On the performance of the present Congress government, 21 percent said they were extremely satisfied, and 54 percent said they were somewhat satisfied, and 25 percent expressed dissatisfaction.

The survey also reveals that the separate religion status to Lingayats may indeed be advantageous to the Congress, with 61 percent of the Lingayats supporting the move.

On who did more for the poor, the farmers, the women, the Dalits, the backwards classes and SC/ST, the Congress was far ahead of the BJP, reinforcing the Congress' vote share.

To a question on who was responsible for the PNB scam involving Nirav Modi, 56 percent of the surveyed voters felt BJP was to be blamed, while 14 percent felt it was the Congress. As much as 41 percent of the voters also felt Amit Shah misused his position to help his son Jay Shah allegedly increase his company's turnover.

CM Siddaramaiah's action to erase Hindi signages in metro statations in Bengaluru found support in 92 percent of the voters, and 59 percent agreed with the CM that the BJP was trying to impose Hindi in Karnataka. The opinion on demonetisation was mixed, with 48 percent feeling that it was good for the country, and 52 percent saying it was bad. However, 64 percent of the voters felt GST was implemented without proper planning while 36 percent felt it was good for the economy.

The voters who were surveyed said that shortage of drinking water was the main problem facing them, followed by drainage issues and garbage disposal.