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India to retain status as fastest growing economy in 2019-20 - World Bank


By Arul Louis

United Nations, Jan 9 (IANS): Fuelled by policy reforms and rebound in credit, India's economy is forecast to expand by 7.5 per cent during the 2019-20 fiscal year and retain its position as the fastest growing major economy in a world of slowing growth, according to the World Bank.

The Bank's Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report released on Tuesday kept the forecasts made for India in its June report for the next fiscal year and the 7.3 per cent estimate for the current fiscal year, up from 6.7 per cent recorded in 2017-18.

However, it warned that in South Asia, the upcoming election cycle "elevates political uncertainty in the region".

"The challenging political environment could adversely affect the ongoing reform agenda and economic activity in some countries," it added.

The GEP presented a gloomy outlook for the world as a whole: Growth was projected to slow to 2.9 per cent for the current year, down from the estimated 3 per cent for the last year and to grow only by 2.8 per cent in the next two years.

It blamed trade tensions and slowdown in manufacturing for the pessimism.

The report said: "India is forecast to accelerate to 7.5 per cent in fiscal year 2019-20 as consumption remains robust and investment growth continues, and as (economic) activity benefits from recent policy reforms and a rebound in credit."

For the 2020-21 and 2021-22 fiscal years, the GEP has projected a growth rate of 7.5 per cent.

The World Bank's 7.5 per cent growth projection for the next fiscal year is slightly higher than the 7.4 per cent made by the International Monetary Fund last October.

But the GEP's estimate of 7.3 per cent for the current fiscal year falls between India's Central Statistics Office (CSO) figure of 7.2 per cent and the Reserve Bank of India's 7.4 per cent.

China's growth rate was estimated to be 6.5 per cent last year and forecast to be 6.2 per cent this year and the next, and going down further to 6 per cent in 2021.

In South Asia, Pakistan's growth rate is forecast to fall drastically from last fiscal year's 5.8 per cent to 3.7 per cent this fiscal year "as financial conditions tighten in the face of rising inflation and external vulnerabilities". In 2019-20 it is forecast to rebound to 4.8 per cent.

Bangladesh grew faster than India with 7.9 per cent in the last fiscal year "driven mainly by private consumption and supported by remittance inflows", the report said. But its growth is forecast to fall to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year.

Releasing the report, the Bank's Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva said: "At the beginning of 2018 the global economy was firing on all cylinders, but it lost speed during the year and the ride could get even bumpier in the year ahead.

"As economic and financial headwinds intensify for emerging and developing countries, the world's progress in reducing extreme poverty could be jeopardised. To keep the momentum, countries need to invest in people, foster inclusive growth, and build resilient societies."

According to the GEP, the advanced economies are the worst performers, with a growth rate of 2.2 per cent last year that is forecast to steadily fall to 2 per cent this year, and to 1.6 per cent and 1.5 per cent in the next two years.

The US, though, is faring better in that group with a 2.9 per cent growth last year and projected growth rates of 2.5 this year and 1.7 per cent and 1.6 in the next years.

Comment on this article

  • shetty, puttur

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    From a Fragile 5 during MMS to Top 5 during Modi.

    DisAgree [3] Agree [4] Reply Report Abuse

  • ANU, dubai

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    TODAYS SPECIAL BANDAL . . . . . . Now no more BANDALS...….So another BANDAL in Economic Growth

    DisAgree [11] Agree [7] Reply Report Abuse

  • Pai, Mangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    CONgressis: rahul will get it to double digits once he becomes the PM

    DisAgree [5] Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jenifer, Mangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Oh yeah ! Even our local MP promised US$. 15 against Re. 1/- too ! And, you believed and voted for him.

    DisAgree [9] Agree [12] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sanjeeva Pai, Kuppaypadv/Mangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Pai Mam,
    This is called Aadi Biddaru Mugu Maylu. Can you please research on this dialogue and accept the truth. Remember 'TRUTH IS ALWAYS BITTER'. worst than Sugarless CHAI.

    DisAgree Agree Reply Report Abuse

  • rajesh, adyar

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    This will continue if we all support Modi as Prime minister again.

    DisAgree [20] Agree [23] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sahil, Mangaluru

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Practical scenario hard to build financial stronger ourselves will takes decades. Than till 2019 begin all report shows loss and with in a year how can boom up?

    DisAgree [10] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangaluru/Kuwait

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    @ KRPrabhu, Mangalore/Bangalore

    Mamu you cannot and do not have a right to abuse on any ones comments to suit your wish. You (amgele) people abuse congress and Gandhi fly and uphold only BJP principles always and for ever.
    Use good and clearly understanding language to convince others. We are not commenting on your privatley own media. It's public forum and we do not need your force to conver over others comments. Read by good sebse and not by aggressive attitude that fits only the BJP.

    DisAgree [13] Agree [14] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangaluru/Kuwait

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Haters: Moodi bribed the WB!!

    DisAgree Agree [24] Reply Report
    How that possible !

    DisAgree [13] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangaluru/Kuwait

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    That is because of Modi Saabs schemes, promises, election assurances etc. have no bearing in any way. All schemes and benefits are implemented or planned during LS election times. for example10% quota for economically backward upper castes. Few months back reduction in GST on certain products sales.
    Next will be fuel & gas price reductions. Everything is well (politically) timed.





















    DisAgree [12] Agree [5] Reply Report Abuse

  • KRPrabhu, Mangalore/Bangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Scroundrels annoyed with this good news also....

    DisAgree [12] Agree [20] Reply Report Abuse

  • abdul, udupi

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    This was an expected reply from amchigele like you. This is good news for few but fake news for scores of children of Bharath Matha

    DisAgree [21] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • KRPrabhu, Mangalore/Bangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    ಯಾಕಪ್ಪಾ ಹೊಟ್ಟೆ ಉರಿ..

    DisAgree [9] Agree [20] Reply Report Abuse

  • Prashant Karkera, Hejamady/Mumbai

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Haters would say now, Modi got his men in WB and United Nations is under Modi's influence ...
    These people will never feel happy for any good news for the country, jealous has taken place of hemoglobin in the blood ....

    DisAgree [6] Agree [24] Reply Report Abuse

  • David Pais, Mangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    fake news from nagpur

    DisAgree [24] Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangaluru/kUWAIT

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    All in preparation for forthcoming elections.
    So many well planned schemes, benefits are unfolding and gaining momentum. Keept it up.
    Desh ka naam roshan karo.

    DisAgree [18] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Flavian, Mangaluru/Kuwait

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    All depends on election results favoring BJP. If not, no one can predict the growth rate up or doward.

    DisAgree [11] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Althaf, Belapu

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    What is the use of this growth when back bone of the country our farmers are making suicide due to loans, poor people does not have money to eat food for 2 times, When people are not getting good medicines, when children are not getting good education, When value of cow is more important than human life, People are fighting over mandir, masjid issues, where uneducated people are becoming CM, PM And ministers, Where businesses are getting close due to GST,.... What a comman citizen gets from this growth ??? This growth is only for industrialist and politicians.

    DisAgree [24] Agree [18] Reply Report Abuse

  • JK, Udupi/Dubai

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    INDIA - ENGINE POWERED BY MODI!!!

    DisAgree [19] Agree [31] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jenifer, Mangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Pleases tell me how many youth it employed ??

    Please tell me that our youth are not going outside India seeking employment but foreigners are coming seeking jobs to India.

    I don't want to believe you or the WB blindly, I want some assurance especially from you since you are such a huge fan of our nation's leader.

    DisAgree [25] Agree [17] Reply Report Abuse

  • shaikh, Bengaluru

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Excellent question Ms. Jenifer. Citizens must question and get answers from such blind supporters of our Government ministers. Ministers deliver big promises and catchy jumlas at public rallies, there, no one questions them. That's why i believe, they avoid live press conferences and debates, either to Media or Intellectual forums, for fear of being answerable !!! But if we look at other countries in the west or Europe, leaders do press conferences and participate in healthy discussions and debates !!

    DisAgree [14] Agree [9] Reply Report Abuse

  • Rajesh, mangyshetty8@gmail.com

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    In a world which is moving towards automation in every sphere it is better if population is reduced . Otherwise no matter which government is in power unemployment will continue.

    DisAgree Agree [15] Reply Report Abuse

  • Jenifer, Mangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Rajesh, then there has to be a protest for issuing citizenship to neighbouring countries' migrating Hindu population - what do you say ?

    DisAgree [11] Agree [7] Report Abuse

  • Alwyn, Mangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Bangladesh grew faster than India with 7.9 percent. This is not my view but the news.

    DisAgree [13] Agree [8] Reply Report Abuse

  • Sudhakar, Kallianpur

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    What you heard is Bangladesh growth of population!!!

    DisAgree [3] Agree [11] Reply Report Abuse

  • Prashanth, Bangalore

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    You don't need Modi to take India to the top. Just stopping the loot by Congress is enough. India will move by itself.

    DisAgree [10] Agree [40] Reply Report Abuse

  • abdul, udupi

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Some one in authority in world bank is sure to have become richer by some millions given by chaiwala and team to spread this fake news.

    The demonetization has filled the coffers of besharam janara party and they are making use of it for ulterior motives and spreading fake news and making the gullible Indian public fools

    DisAgree [34] Agree [10] Reply Report Abuse

  • Santosh, Manglore.

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    ... means you dont believe yourself. Everything is done by Modi? This progress done by us. By people. Be proud we made it!

    DisAgree [2] Agree [24] Reply Report Abuse

  • abdul, udupi

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    I pity gober-headed bhakt like you. Any lie by the chaiwala looks like sanatana truth for you

    DisAgree [16] Agree [6] Reply Report Abuse

  • Santosh, Manglore.

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Keep it up India! India shining, because of we people. Proud of it.- Politicians are here to keep hurdles, when ever everything goes smooth.

    DisAgree [5] Agree [23] Reply Report Abuse

  • Navin Shetty, Manipal/ Bahrain

    Wed, Jan 9 2019

    Haters: Moodi bribed the WB!!

    DisAgree [5] Agree [41] Reply Report Abuse

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Title : India to retain status as fastest growing economy in 2019-20 - World Bank


 
 
 
 

 
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