TNN

New Delhi, May 15: With political parties and leaders feverishly working out permutations after what seems to be an election too close to call, there is a new story doing the rounds which sees Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar as an unlikely "consensus" candidate for the prime minister's job.

The script that is being drawn up — though it is yet to find any sort of formal articulation anywhere — is that while some of the third front players are determined to push for a government supported by Congress, the numbers may not work out. The reality check delivered by Telangana Rashtriya Samiti going over to the NDA has had a sobering effect, with JD(S) also on the "doubtful" list.

But it is also being argued that neither Congress nor BJP may be in a position to form the government after results come out on Saturday. Given that third front partners — TDP among others — are bitter rivals of the Congress, they are not all that keen to see the party again lead the UPA at the Centre. At the same time, TDP, BJD and Mamata Banerjee have deep reservations about renewing any commitment with the BJP.

This has seen a view, being talked of in hushed tones, of a "secular" partner of NDA like Nitish Kumar being a PM nominee with the backing of third front partners like TDP who are sure to be uncomfortable with signs of the Left coming around to support a Congress-led government.

So, a non-BJP NDA leader gets the support of third front parties and heads a government as the saffron party on its own may not be able to rope in players like TDP, BJD or Mamata who don't like to go along with Congress or Left but are also wary of BJP's company.

A variation of the same play is BJP agreeing to support NCP boss Sharad Pawar to dislodge Congress. The ambitious Maratha is keen on taking the helm at the Centre and was close to an alliance with BJP for the 2004 polls. In Shiv Sena, he has a strong advocate within NDA, and can also muster support from BJD and TDP.

There are, however, serious deficiencies in the plot. BJP, determined as it is to strain every sinew to ensure L K Advani becomes the next PM, is hardly likely to go along. After all, a party which expects to win around 160 seats is not going to offer support to a partner who, luck favouring, may win just about 20 Lok Sabha seats or so.

Even within TDP, such an option will be seen as being quite out of the way as the party's leader N Chandrababu Naidu may not be willing to go to such lengths to pursue a non-Congress government dispensation at the Centre. But on paper at least, the idea of BJP "sparing" Nitish Kumar for the top job seems alluring enough as it seems to absolve parties like TDP of some difficult choices which it is anticipating.

The problem is, pointed out those familiar with third front affairs, that the grouping is not likely to last very long. Unless Congress suffers a drastic drop in numbers — which seems highly unlikely — the third front looks to be a non-starter. The partners are expected to make a pitch for it when they meet in New Delhi on Saturday, but there is growing sense that the game might be over sooner than later.

With some maintaining that third front partners are actually waiting for an excuse to get out of the grouping, TDP is also keeping a close watch on how the Left is moving. Any clearer indications that Left may well facilitate a Congress-led government would be a signal for Chandrababu Naidu to chart his own course. He has stressed he will not go with BJP either, though there has been contact between him and emissaries from the saffron camp.

With both BJP and Congress unlikely to be props for any other "front", the Nitish Kumar proposal may not go a long way. But given that politics can be stranger than fiction, surprises cannot be ruled out, all the more so in the era of coalitions.