May 3, 2009

When the country as a whole and Karnataka in particular has recorded low voter turn out in the elections held recently, with  a poll percentage of 74.44% Dakshina Kannada parliamentary constituency has created a record of sort registering highest percentage in the history of this  parliamentary constituency and that of the state for all times.  Mangalore is again creating news, this time for all the right reasons.  It goes to prove that political consciousness runs high among Mangaloreans who have exercised their democratic rights in the right earnest. 

The best ever voter turn out so far in this constituency in the elections held recently bettering the previous best of 73.66% recorded in 1998, has led to speculations among supporters of the major political parties in the fray.  While political parties are quick to welcome this  trend of people participating in the democratic process in a big way, hectic political parleys are being conducted by political parties to assess the situation following the heavy voter turnout to know who is going to be the beneficiary.  

CHANGED POLITICAL SCENARIO

The speculation stems from the trend witnessed during the polling held on April 30 and the details of the assembly-wise percentage of polling available. Assembly constituencies like Mangalore and Mangalore North which are considered to be strongholds of Congress recorded an impressive voter turn out of 74.61% and 72.23% respectively. Bantwal, another Congress citadel also polled 77,63% votes.  Similarly BJP bastions like Sullia assembly segment reported 80.12%, the highest in the state, closely followed by other BJP strongholds Puttur with 78.47% and Belthangady recording 72.66%.  Comparatively Congress strongholds like Moodbidri and Mangalore South recorded a slight lower turnout of 71.2% and 68.26% polling respectively.  

This was the first elections conducted at the backdrop of the church attack of last year and the widely publicized pub attack and undoubtedly this was an elections issue at least in Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chikmagalur constituencies.  Political awareness has always been high among the people in this constituency and it is well-known that both these incidents and the frequent incidents of communal violence have antagonized the two major minority communities who form a sizeable chunk of voters.   Naturally, the Congress sensed the mood of the people here and fielded Janardhana Poojary, who it thought is the best bet to take on the might of the BJP.   

Concerted efforts were made by rival political parties and politically conscious citizens coaxing people to come and vote in large numbers in the charged and changed political atmosphere of the district. The minorities identified themselves with the Congress in the changed political scenario which might have prompted them to come out and show their collective strength, resulting in high percentage of voting.

Similarly, speculation was rife that following the consolidation of minority and Billava in favour of the Congress its candidate Janardhana Poojary stood a fairly good chance of winning in Mangalore giving a chance for the Congress to bounce back after a gap of 18 years. Janardhana Poojary prevented the consolidation of Billava votes when he patched up with another Billava leader Vinaya Kumar Sorake who was all set to join the BJP. The weak candidature of BJP’s Nalin Kumar Kateel further bolstered the spirits of the Congress party with the warring parties coming together burying their differences and fighting with the single most object of defeating its arch rival BJP.  
 

HARD WORK PAYS OFF 

On the other hand the negative reports for BJP proved to be a blessing as the party began working with a renewed vigour and single minded devotion of accomplishing the mission on hand. The party took it as a challenge and its strong cadre base proved to be its strength. This was very much evident as its fortresses Sullia and Puttur recorded high percentage of voting which must have been due to the strenuous work of the party karyakartas.  The party cadres must have really sweated it out in persuading people to exercise their right to vote resulting in people queuing up to vote.   The hard work on the part of BJP necessitated as the party had lost its stronghold Kodagu to Mysore after delimitation and it wanted to compensate the loss by encouraging more voters to cast their votes.  

Contrary to the trends noticed in other parts of the state the youth in the districts have exercised their votes in fairly large numbers.  The claim of the major political parties that youth are with them in these elections has also added to the speculation as to whom the luck favours. Traditionally it is believed that youth are identified with the BJP.  But the circumstances of the past one year have kept everyone in guessing which side the youth have swung their affinity to.  

THE THIRD FACTOR  

While independent candidate Ram Bhat might take a small percentage of votes believed to be that of BJP, CPI (M) candidates B Madhava is believed to have garnered at least some percentage of votes otherwise believed to be that of the Congress.  Rumours were rife that Congress had paid Ram Bhat 10 lakhs to play the spoilsport which might have further encouraged the Sangh Parivar to work doubly hard to ensure the victory of its candidate.  

Incidentally both Mangalore and Udupi districts have shown good voter turn out in all the elections held so far.  When most of the districts struggle to go beyond the 60% mark Mangalore has crossed the 70% mark for the 9th time in the 15 general elections held so far.  Thrice it recorded above 64% and only twice it went below the 60% mark recording 52.38% in the second general elections held in 1957 and 59.64% in the elections held in 1991.  No doubt the coastal belt has set a good precedent for other district to follow when it comes to participating in the democratic process in the true spirit.   

Ever since the high voters turn out is reported both the Congress and the BJP are claiming that high voter turn out may finally prove beneficial to them.  Even as the EVMs are kept under tight security in the guarded premises of Canara Pre-university College in Kodialbail, speculations and guessing goes on in different quarters giving myriad variations to the existing theories.  Everybody is waiting with baited breath for the D-day, May 16, which may put an end to all theories and rumours doing the rounds.  Till then it is just a wait and watch game. 

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