Bangalore, April 28: A DEEPLY religious and devout H D Deve Gowda is known to be a firm believer in astrology.  The Congress party took advantage of this trait to devastating effect by fielding a political greenhorn like a Kannada TV journalist against him from Kanakapura parliamentary constituency in 2004 on the basis of astrological advice that only a woman could defeat him. Luckily for him, he did contest from his native Hassan district to enter the 14th Lok Sabha.

And now, Gowda is contesting again from Hassan.  Though many Janata Parivar stalwarts like Siddaramaiah, C M Ibrahim, M P Prakash and P G R Sindhia, who had been with him since 2004 and even earlier, are no longer with him, political circles are agog with speculation on whether the JD(S) stalwart could be floored not by his opponents but by the numerological factor or superstition, if you will.

Deve Gowda (JDS), Hanumegowda (BJP) and B Shivaram

Strange but true.  In the many ups and downs in his long political career, Gowda lost the assembly election in 1989 from Holenarasipur constituency and the lok sabha poll in 1999 from Hassan. Now, ten years down the line, in 2009 to be precise, Gowda is facing another lok sabha poll from Hassan. Simply put, the number ``9’’ factor comes into play this time round.  Will it make or mar him? The question arises because the current parliamentary elections are quite crucial for Gowda as he is waging his most crucial electoral battle against Congress and BJP in the state.  He is also a key player in the third front formulation rubbing shoulders with the likes of Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury, A B Bardan, Chandrababu Naidu, Jayalalitha and Mayawati, to name the top leaders.

Neither Gowda nor Hassan need any introduction to people familiar with Karnataka. The 76-year-old Gowda, who rose from being a humble potato farmer to being a civil contractor to the most coveted CM’s post in 1994 and was catapulted to the nation’s top-most PM’s post in 1996, has been a most active 24X7 politician who breathes, drinks and eats politics with no other habits or hobbies to detract him.  He has been often described as the mannina maga (son of the soil) or humble farmer. A man of strong likes and dislikes, he has his share of bitter enemies and loyal supporters. You can love him or hate him but never ignore him.

And, Hassan, as is widely known, is the picturesque heart of the malnad region situated about 180 kms from Bangalore and some 150 kms from Mangalore surrounded by the six districts of Chikmagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Kodagu, Mysore, Mandya and Tumkur. Ruled by Kadambas, Chalukyas, Gangas, Hoysalas and Vijayanagara kings, the district is known for the historic Belur-Halebid temples with their unique style of temple architecture and endless variety of depictions from Hindu mythology, Shilabalikes, animals and birds and 57-foot monolithic stone statue of Lord Bahubali, acknowledged as the world’s tallest single stone marvel, at Shravanabelagola throughout the world.

Partly malnad and partly maidan (or plains), the district is known for coffee and pepper cultivation, it grows agricultural crops like potato and paddy besides sugarcane.  In the 2009 lok sabha elections, due on April 30 in Hassan, Gowda has to contend with 12 other candidates. But his main opponents are: Congress party’s B Shivaram and K H Hanumegowda from BJP. The BSP and the militant farmers’ outfit, Karnataka Rajya Raitha Sangha, which is contesting under the Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha banner, are also in the fray but are not reckoned as serious challengers like the other independents.

With the sole exception of Lingayat community’s Shivananjappa way back in 1962, Hassan has always favoured a Vokkaliga candidate. Naturally, therefore, all the three main contenders from JD(S), Congress and BJP belong to the Vokkaliga community in this predominantly Vokkaliga constituency. Though Gowda had won the seat thrice from 1991, BJP had never been successful. Gowda’s staunch loyalist-turned-bitter-enemy G Puttaswamygowda had defeated him in 1999 on the Congress ticket. The Congress candidate Shivaram had been elected from Gandsi assembly constituency. The BJP candidate Hanumegowda is a former Congress legislator, who got elected to the assembly once from the saffron party. But he has not been very active politically since the last few years. Of  the eight assembly segments in the parliamentary constituency, JD(S) has been controlling five – Hassan, Arsikere, Sakleshpur, Shravanabelagola and Holenarsipur, Gowda’s home constituency and presently held by elder son H D Revanna while Congress is holding Kadur and Arkalgud and Belur is under an independent. The BJP drew a blank in the entire parliamentary constituency in last year’s assembly polls.

However, the BJP has been making desperate attempts to tame Gowda and his family in Hassan. It has not achieved any success so far though it managed to gain some influence in a few pockets. After desperately trying to woo Shivaram and prop up as its candidate without any success, the ruling party finally managed to lure the former Congress minister H C Srikantaiah into its fold.  With Srikantaiah being too old to contest and not in a position to offer a strong challenge to Gowda, the BJP had to finally settle on Hanumegowda.  He, however, is not spring chicken and enjoys poor health. In fact, during a recent election rally at Mosale Hosahalli in the Holenarsipur assembly segment, Hanumegowda was unable to climb the steps to reach the dais and had to be physically lifted by BJP workers in the presence of rural development minister Shobha Karandlaje.  Apart from his ill-health, Hanumegowda has a reputation for short-temper and does not get on well with BJP or ABVP activists.  In addition, his candidature was openly criticised by senior BJP leader B B Shivappa, a former state president and an influential Lingayat leader from Sakleshpur.

The Congress party is bereft of strong leaders in the district to face the might of Gowda clan. Shivaram had been an vocal opponent of not just Gowda but his son Revanna, he has not received much support from the party. Though he resisted BJP’s efforts to wean him away, Shivaram finds himself isolated in the party. Some of his admirers are terming his valiant and single-handed battle against Gowdas as the epic fight of Mahabharat’s Abhimanyu, who was caught in a maze and unable to find his way out despite his valor.

The caste composition of the predominantly-Vokkaliga Hassan parliamentary constituency is not so favourable either to Congress or BJP. It has almost 4 lakh Vokkaligas followed by Lingayats, Dalits, Kurubas and Minorities. The only plus point in favour of BJP is the inclusion of Lingayat-dominated Kadur from Chikmagalur in the constituency post-delimitation, which also has a sizeable Kuruba voters. The best hopes of Congress is to get a chunk of Vokkaliga voters, who are disenchanted with Gowda and his family, and support from a section of anti-BJP Lingayats along with SC/STs and Muslims along with Kurubas. If the BSP candidate, A P Ahmed, and Raitha Sangha’s Kodihalli  Chandrashekar, succeed in taking sizeable Muslim and Dalit voters along with those of farmers cutting across party lines, it may help BJP.

Another factor that might affect Gowda’s prospects is the division of caste-conscious Vokkaligas among Dasa and Mullu sects as Gowda and Shivaram belong to the Mullu Vokkaligas while Hanumegowda is from the Dasa Vokkaligas.  With all three leading candidates belonging to Vokkaliga community, how far the division among the sub-sects works and who benefits is the moot question. It is certainly an uphill task for either BJP or Congress to put it past Gowda in Hassan in his home turf.