May 17, 2008
Mangalore                                                                   
                                                                     
                                                              
Curtains have finally come down on the second phase of state assembly elections.

Votes have been sealed and secured in the electronic polling machines and candidates are now relieved from the task of joining their hands and begging for votes, but they need to keep their fingers crossed and be patient until Sunday May 25, 2008 morning, when the counting begins.

The turnout for polls around South Kanara has improved considerably compared to last election. Though the polling began slowly and steadily, it later picked up momentum finally registering a good percentage of voters.

Daijiworld's dedicated 18-member team travelled across South Kanara along with the local reporters and correspondents, and interviewed more than 1200 voters throughout the day. Our correspondents met all classes of people in terms of age, religion, caste and other factors.

The result of the interaction with the candidates as well as selected voters reveals that Congress would be improving its position in South Kanara and might bag 8-9 seats out of the 13 seats in twin districts.

BJP on the other hand is expected to lose several strongholds, but could give a close fight to Congress in the districts.

The improved percentage will help Congress to regain confidence in the districts, says political Pundits.

Here's an analysis of what may happen in each constituency, based on the opinion poll conducted by Daijiworld  team:

Bantwal:

Nagaraj Shetty and Ramanath Rai

Though the initial trend was in favour of Congress candidate Ramanath Rai, things have changed a lot since Rai ended his canvassing on May 14. JD(S) candidate K M Ibrahim has played spoil-sport for Congress here, as JD(S) supremo Deve Gowda in a public meeting last week assured people of Bantwal that if his party comes to power K M Ibrahim will be made cabinet minister. Even if he loses the election JD(S) will offer him MLC seat. This has changed the minds of many in Bantwal and now it is clear that many Congress votes, especially Muslim votes have gone in favour of K M Ibrahim. BJP's Nagaraj Shetty will gain from this politics and though Shetty has an edge over Rai, the margin will be very narrow.

Many voters are not happy with Shetty's performance during the last three years; even as minister he did not do much to Bantwal. One thing evident here was that people have still not forgotten the October 2006 riots and many of them indirectly blame BJP-JD(S) government for the violence.

Whichever way the results go, the contest is sure to be neck-and-neck here.

Beltangady:

Vasanth Bangera and Prabhakar Bangera

Congress candidate Vasant Bangera is the favourite here. He has a reputation for frequently jumping from one party to another. In the last election, contesting from JD(S) Bangera lost to BJP by a few votes. As Vasant Bangera has joined Congress now, his way seems to be clear. Though his brother Prabhakar Bangera was expected to gain all the traditional BJP votes, JD(S) candidate Gangadhara Gowda might cause him some trouble. But our survey revealed that Vasant Bangera will win the seat from here by a comfortable margin.

Byndoor:

Gopal Poojary and Laxmi Narayana

Congress MLA Gopal Poojary who has won three times from here is going strong and is expected to retain his position for the fourth time.Though some people want changes and a new face, BJP candidate Laxmi Narayana does not have that great a charisma to beat the giant. Many voters feel Congress will retain the seat here.

Karkala:

Gopal Bhandary and Sunil Kumar

Congress candidate Gopal Bhandary has an edge over 'firebrand' 32-year-old BJP candidate Sunil Kumar. Many voters feel that Karkala is not as peaceful as it was earlier during Moily's and later Gopal Bandari's tenure. This election has seen a volley of many personal allegations between the two candidates. A few voters have sympathy for Congress and trend shows Gopal Bandary winning by a narrow margin.

Kaup:

Vasanth Salian and Lalaji Mendon

Things have changed here for Vasant V Salian. A few voters feel that Salian has learnt a lesson after losing the election last time. Though BJP candidate Lalaji Mendon has not done any harm here, his achievements are nothing to shout about for many voters. JD(S) candidate Leeladhar Shetty is expected to snatch many BJP votes, thereby giving Vasanth V Salian a better chance here.

Kundapur:

J P Hegde and Srinivas Shetty

This constituency has been considered one of the toughest in the region. The fight between Congress' Jayaprakash Hegde and BJP's previous MLA Halady Srinivas Shetty has been described as the 'clash of the Titans'. Predicting the result from here is extremely difficult but BJP has a small upper hand, according to the voters.

Mangalore:

Khadar and Kottari

Former Ullal MLA and Congress candidate U T Khadar has a clear upper hand in this constituency. Two factors are in favour of Khader here - one, a good number of minority votes are cast here and second, BJP candidate Padmanabh Kottary last time won from Vittal constituency and he is not a familiar face with the locals here. It is reported that the highest number of Muslim and Christian votes are exercised here.

Mangalore North:

Krishna Palemar and Moidin bava

Two multi-millioners are contesting here, former MLA BJP's Krishna Palemar against Congress candidate Moidin Bava. Palemar is a charismatic figure here, and he is considered non-communal and non-controversial. Even a big number of minorities, specially Muslims are supporting him. Mangalore North might be retained by BJP here.

Mangalore South:

Yogish Bhat and Ivan D'Souza

Compared to last election's polling percentage, this year there is about 10% improvement. The highest number of votes has been cast by Christians and Muslims and this could turn in favour of Ivan D'Souza. The margin of victory will be the lowest in the region as Yogish Bhat is very well known and considered a 'harmless' candidate for any community. His high reputation is his asset. But going by the polling percentage Ivan has full chance of entering the assembly for the first time.

Moodibidri:

Abayachandra, Amarnath Shetty and Jagadish Adhikari

Abhayachandra Jain of Congress is all set to retain his position here. He was expected to score a win with a good margin this time too. His main opponent is Amarnath Shetty of JD(S), who might improve on his last standing. BJP was expecting to open its account from here, but as Jagadish Adhikari is a new face, and his own partyman Satish Bhat did not support him much, Congress has an edge here.

Puttur:

Mallika, Shaku and Bondala

This is another interesting constituency. Puttur constituency has been in the news right from the beginning. BJP denied ticket to former MLA Shakunatala Shetty here and it refused to budge from its decision. For Shaku Akka, the initial trend was good, but later she lagged behind. Meanwhile, Congress' young candidate Bondala Jagannath Shetty is expected to benefit from BJP's internal fights. However, BJP's Mallika Prasad also came back strongly during her last round of campaigning. According to the voters we interviewed, the trend is in favour of Mallika Prasad of BJP.

Sullia:

Angara and Dr Raghu

BJP's Angara will be a clear winner from Sullia reserve constituency. The trend here is fully with BJP. There is very little opposition for Angara here. Though Congress candidate Dr Raghu is a little stronger here, Angara's victory is guaranteed.

Udupi:

Pramod Madwaraj and Ragupathi Bhat

Pramod Madhwaraj is expected to enter the assembly for the first time from here. Though both Pramod and BJP candidate Raghupati Bhat were classmates and good friends, election has kept their friendship at bay. Young generation is fully backing Pramod and many youngsters whom Daijiworld met expressed their confidence that Pramod Madhwaraj will win this time.

According to the above opinions from different people from different regions, Congress will improve its tally with 8 to 9 seats and BJP will gain the remaining four seats.

The above report is based on individual opionions. The final result may differ, and secret ballot will never give accurate exit poll result.

Atleast 60% of the voters we interviewed were upset with the Mangalore communcal riots of the year 2006, during which they had felt insecured and fearful. Also, quite a few people were disappointed with the politcal drama in the state, the way two parties agreed to share 20-20 months of power and later broke the deal.

Majority of the voters expect hung assembly this time too. A few voters predicted Deve Gowda to continue to act as kingmaker of the political arena and wield his powerful wand!

Also see:

• Dakshina Kannada Records 72 per cent Polling
• Udupi: Second Phase of Election Witnesses Brisk Polling
• Mangalore: Second Phase of Polling Begins - Good Response in Early Hours